Maize harvest in South Africa falls below 13 million tons for the first time in 5 years

Published 2024년 9월 27일

Tridge summary

The 2023/24 harvest forecasts in South Africa have been revised downward due to El Nino-induced heat, with maize harvest estimates falling 22% below the previous year at 12.80 million tons. Other crops such as sunflower, soybean, groundnut, sorghum, and dry beans also saw decreases in their harvest estimates. However, despite the reduced harvest, South Africa remains a net exporter of maize and is experiencing a strong price response in the market. Import activities have increased, with yellow maize imports from Argentina and a potential increase in oil cake imports due to decreased soybean harvests. The upcoming agriculture season is expected to bring La Nina, and there is an anticipated decrease in input costs such as fuel prices.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

By Paul Makube, Senior Agricultural Economist, FNB Commercial 27 September 2024: Monitoring the 2023/24 harvest forecasts has been interesting following an El Nino-induced heat that decimated crops earlier in the year. After the initial optimism of a 14.36 million tons in the first estimate despite the drought conditions, the National Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) downgraded their forecast in the subsequent updates. Now, the maize harvest estimates for the first time fell below 13 million tons for the first time in five years at 12.80 million tons which is down 22% y/y and 5% below the 10-year average of 13.47 million tons, according to the CEC’s 8th production forecast. We did expect this scenario to happen given the lower producer deliveries of just over 9.95 million tons as of the week ended 20 September 2024, which is 78% of the expected crop and 28% below the 3-year average of 13.88 million tons. Nonetheless, we had a good carryover stock which provides a slight buffer to ...

Source: Agrifocusafrica