OCBC Global Research revises CPO palm oil price for 2024

게시됨 2024년 1월 16일

Tridge 요약

OCBC Global Markets Research has raised its forecast for crude palm oil (CPO) prices in 2024 to an average of RM3,650 per tonne, citing increasing supply risks due to El Niño weather events. Both the Malaysian Palm Oil Board and the Indonesian Palm Oil Association expect production to remain flat this year due to the disruptions caused by El Niño, and Indonesia's focus on increasing its use of biofuels may further reduce palm oil exports. OCBC Research also expects Brent crude prices to average US$80 per barrel in 2024, with sufficient global supply despite cuts from OPEC and allies, as increased oil production from countries like the United States, Brazil, and Iran continue to support the market. Ultimately, the impact of OPEC+ extending voluntary production cuts beyond the first quarter of 2024 on global oil prices remains uncertain.

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원본 콘텐츠

OCBC Global Markets Research has revised its crude palm oil (CPO) prices for 2024 to an average of RM3,650 per tonne, from the previous estimate of RM3,400. In its monthly commodities review, the research firm said the upward price revision reflects rising supply risk as El Niño weather events continue into 2024 with moderate but increasing intensity. Both the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) and the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) expect production to remain largely flat this year due to the El Niño disruption. Additionally, Indonesia's efforts to increase its use of biofuels could potentially reduce palm oil exports. A smaller price spread between palm oil and other vegetable oils could further encourage biofuel blending. Admittedly, OCBC Research said the intensity and duration of El Niño will remain a wildcard in the coming months. "As it stands, we expect the CPO price to fluctuate within a range in the near term due to reduced discounts on palm oil compared to other ...

출처: Zol