Oversupply and trade conflicts shaped agricultural markets in 2025

The year 2025 became a period of record supply in global agricultural markets. High yields of corn, soybeans, and wheat generally satisfied growing global demand and at the same time restrained price dynamics. At the same time, the key factor of uncertainty remained demand, which was under pressure from escalating trade confrontations, primarily between the US and China, reports "ProAgro Group." The global grain market experienced a real boom in the 2025/26 season. Most leading wheat exporters harvested at least 10% more than the previous year. This led to an increase in global wheat stocks outside of China by 13.5% — the largest annual increase in the last 16 years. As a result, wheat prices in Chicago fell below $5 per bushel for the first time in more than five years. Analysts note that the combination of high production and declining profitability may, in the future, lead to a reduction in wheat acreage in the US and Russia in the 2026/27 season. The corn market showed a more ...