The bleeding continues in lean hog futures plus China

Published 2023년 1월 20일

Tridge summary

Lean hog futures prices have reached a three-month low, with strong support at the October lows expected to halt the price decline. Retailers are buying a lot of pork, and US packers moved a large volume of pork this week. However, a backlog of hogs on US farms due to extended packer cutbacks is contributing to the downward pressure on hog prices. Despite this, a recovery is anticipated due to tight numbers, low weights, and hog supply reductions implied by the USDA. China's pork production increased by 4.6% in 2022, reaching the highest since 2014, and the USDA forecasts a rise in China's pork and beef imports in 2023. Global pork production for 2023 is also expected to increase, with a 2% rise in global pork exports. USDA will release additional indications of cattle availability and producer intentions for 2023 in its Cattle report on January 31.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

Lean hog futures prices this week extended the steep downdraft as prices hit three-month lows. There is strong chart support at the October lows that will likely halt the price declines. The lean hog futures bulls point out that retailers are buying a lot of pork. US packers moved 388.1 loads of pork on Wednesday, bringing this week’s volume to 1,253.5 loads. Wholesale pork prices are cheap compared to beef. The CME lean hog index continued its recent drop. The backlog of hogs on US farms created by extended packer cutbacks through the holiday season remains a force driving hog prices lower. Still, the tight numbers and low weights that dominated the hog market late last year, as well as the 2% year-to-year hog supply reductions implied by the USDA’s December Hogs & Pigs report, suggest a recovery in hog prices soon. China imported 200,000 MT of pork in December, up 20,000 MT (11.1%) from November and 20.1% greater than last year. For 2022, China imported 1.76 MMT of pork, down ...

Source: Thepigsite