World: Dairy market is looking for a new balance

Dairy exports will continue to decline in the first half of 2024. Higher milk prices promise European dairy farmers better margins. Rabobank expects an increasing milk supply in the second half of 2024. However, according to the bank, we should not expect major progress before 2024. Despite rising dairy and milk prices, milk production is lagging behind in major dairy exporting regions. In the fourth quarter, growth fell by one percent year on year. Rabobank expects this trend to continue in the first and second quarters of 2024, meaning that dairy exporting regions will only be able to recover from the decline in milk volumes in the second half of 2024. This means that milk volumes for the entire year of 2024 are expected to be at a similar level as in 2023. Recent market and geopolitical developments have helped the EU and the UK in their dairy exports, especially to (North) Africa and the Middle East. Thanks to higher dairy prices on the world market and a weaker value of the ...