Rabobank’s view: Very tight salmon supply expected in 2021, all eyes on RAS developments, bullish forecast for shrimp prices, and higher demand seen for fishmeal

Chile is the main reason for the predicted tight supply in salmon next year, says Rabobank, in its Global Animal Protein Outlook for 2021. As a result of COVID-19 and low prices in Chile's main export markets – the US, Brazil, and Russia – the Chilean industry reduced smolt numbers during 2020, which will lead to an 8% to 9% contraction of salmon supply in 2021, said the analysts. Globally, they said they expect salmon supply to expand by 0.5% to 2% in 2021, which is much lower than demand growth or historical supply growth. However, the team does expect demand to recover, on the gradual reopening of foodservice, combined with lifting price expectations. “During most of 2020, salmon has been an 'at-home' eating experience for consumers in Europe and the Americas. It has been the go-to seafood species during the pandemic, registering a 3% to 4% increase in consumption in 2020, albeit at a lower price point. We believe that consumers' newfound confidence to cook salmon at home will ...