Reduced maize harvest drives a modest decline in global cereal production in 2024 – FAO

Published 2024년 11월 8일

Tridge summary

The United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) forecasts a marginal decrease in global cereal production to 2,848 million tonnes in 2024, despite being the second-largest output on record. This is due to a predicted decline in global coarse grain production, primarily because of adverse weather conditions affecting maize. However, rice plantings are expected to reach a record high, leading to a minor increase in global wheat production, largely due to expansion in Asian farming areas. Despite a slight rise in global cereal utilization for 2024/25, global cereal stocks could see a minor increase, with the stocks-to-use ratio slightly decreasing. Finally, the FAO forecasts a 3.9% drop in cereal world trade in 2024/25, largely due to expected decreases in wheat and coarse grain trade, but with a rise in rice trade.

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Original content

FAO’s forecast for global cereal production in 2024 stands at 2 848 million tonnes, marginally down (0.4 percent) from the previous year, though still the second largest output on record. In 2024, global wheat production is projected to rise year-on-year to the second-highest level on record. The increase is largely driven by production upturns in Asia that were largely underpinned by area expansions; conducive weather also has supported good yields which more than offset large declines among key European producers. After reaching a record in 2023, global coarse grain production is forecast to decline in 2024 to the second highest level on record. Most of the year-on-year decline is attributed to a sizeable downturn in global maize production, primarily driven by adverse weather conditions. For rice, the 2024/25 season is likely to be characterized by record-breaking plantings, as prospects of positive margins encouraged producers to bring more area under paddy. This could result ...

Source: UkrAgroConsult