Retentions and costs: the brakes of Argentine agriculture in the new era of grains

The new trade understanding between China and the United States is generating a new movement on the global agricultural board, which was analyzed by the Austral University with data from the USDA and the International Grains Council (IGC). The report is based on speculations that Beijing is considering the purchase of approximately 10 million tons of North American soybeans to cover its demand until February, when it will resume supplies from South America. This change directly impacts the regional export dynamics. Brazil consolidates its leadership, projecting a record soybean planting that would reach between 178 and 180 million tons for 2025/26, driven by favorable climatic conditions and sustained incentives. In contrast, producers in Argentina maintain a slower commercialization of both soybeans and corn. The caution is due to the combination of exchange rate volatility, tax pressure, and political uncertainty. Additionally, Argentina has a more complex scenario with ...