Sugar prices rise sharply due to Safras forecasts for the 2026/27 crop year

According to Safras & Mercado, Brazil's sugar production in the 2026/27 crop year is likely to decrease by 3.91%, to around 41.8 million tons, significantly lower than the 43.5 million tons expected for the 2025/26 crop year. In line with this trend, Brazil's sugar exports are also forecast to decline by about 11% from the same period, to approximately 30 million tons, thereby increasing concerns about supply from the world's largest sugar exporter in the medium term. Source: barchart.com The outlook for sugar cane is more promising in India, the world's second-largest sugar producer, which continues to put downward pressure on prices in the market. On November 11, 2025, the India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) raised its forecast for India's 2025/26 sugar production to 31 million tons, up from the previous forecast of 30 million tons and 18.8% higher than the same period last year. At the same time, ISMA also reduced the amount of sugar used for ethanol production to 3.4 million ...