The export duty on sunflower oil may increase.

In January-February, the export duty on sunflower oil will be close to the December rate (8,214 RUB/ton, plus 1,401 RUB from November), or it will increase, forecasts the analytical center of the breeding and seed company Ruseed. On the domestic market, the growth of the duty will moderately put pressure on prices, but the reduction in the harvest does not allow for significant correction. The further dynamics of prices will depend on three factors: world prices for vegetable oils, the ruble exchange rate, and the 2026 harvest, analysts note. At the same time, in 2025, Russia remains the largest supplier of sunflower oil to the world market with a share of 35%. However, the sunflower harvest this year turned out to be 3.5% lower than last year due to drought in the southern regions. Thus, as of the end of November, Russia harvested 16.7 million tons of sunflower seeds, and its oil content has also decreased. "This supported domestic prices and limited the potential for a sharp ...