The global cocoa market is expected to have a surplus in 2025/26, analysis shows.

The international cocoa market is expected to enter 2025 with a more balanced scenario. After two years marked by supply limitations and high prices, projections indicate a partial recovery in production and lower demand pressure. According to the Cocoa Market Report by Hedgepoint, the 2025/26 crop may register a surplus close to 305 thousand tons. This movement results from the higher volume offered and the slowdown in consumption in the main buying regions. Market intelligence analyst at Hedgepoint, Carolina França, states that the global supply shows signs of recovery. Côte d'Ivoire manages to reduce delays in deliveries, while Ghana maintains production at risk due to diseases in aging crops. Ecuador stands out as the main growth driver. Projected to reach around 570 thousand tons in the season, the country continues to be supported by favorable weather and constant investments. Even with this recomposition, global stocks remain below the historical average. The combination of ...