The new U.S. policy will be implemented next year, and the prices of the three major cod ingredients will continue to rise, breaking new highs.
Published 2025년 10월 10일
Tridge summary
The price increase is mainly due to new U.S. policies, with the U.S. Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA) coming into effect on January 1, 2026, processed semi-finished products of Russian pollock from third countries (mainly China) will no longer be able to be sold to the U.S.
Affected by this, the CIF price of Norwegian headless and gutted (H&G) pollock over 800g has risen to $7,150/ton, while the price of Russian pollock between 500g-1kg has risen to $6,150/ton. The price of Norwegian Atlantic cod between 1-2.5kg has increased to $9,850/ton, while the price of Russian Atlantic cod between 1-2kg remains flat at $8,600/ton.
A U.S. importer told UCN: "It's all because of the MMPA, the U.S. can only import raw materials from Norway, not from Russia."
In addition, Chinese exports of pollock to the U.S. will still be subject to a 30% tariff, and the 25% tariff exemption period will expire on November 29, leaving the market with considerable uncertainty. During the National Day Golden Week, Chinese factories are entering a holiday mode, but raw material procurement continues.
A Chinese buyer said that the increased supply of pollock next year will ease some market pressure; additionally, due to the high price of Atlantic cod, some customers are switching to pollock purchases. The Joint Norwegian-Russian Fisheries Commission (JNRFC) recommended increasing the 2026 Barents Sea pollock quota by 18% to 153,293 tons.
For Atlantic cod, the supply next year is likely to continue to decline, with the JNRFC recommending a 21% reduction in the 2026 Barents Sea Atlantic cod quota to 269,440 tons. However, the Russian Federal Fisheries Agency plans to adjust the quota to 315,033 tons and requires Norway to lift sanctions on Russian companies Norebo Holding and Murman SeaFood.
In the saithe market, the price of Russian 25cm+ raw materials continued to rise in the 41st week, with the latest average price at $1,620/ton, only slightly below the highest levels in 2019 and 2022.
A Chinese processing enterprise official said: "In fact, the inventory of saithe is already very scarce, while the demand for finished products is very strong."
Another reason for the rising demand for saithe is the soaring prices of Atlantic cod and pollock, leading merchants to choose cheaper whitefish as a substitute; another market trend is the reduced supply and excessive price increase of frozen saithe fillets, with Chinese-produced secondary frozen saithe fillets and block products gradually becoming an alternative.
Affected by this, the CIF price of Norwegian headless and gutted (H&G) pollock over 800g has risen to $7,150/ton, while the price of Russian pollock between 500g-1kg has risen to $6,150/ton. The price of Norwegian Atlantic cod between 1-2.5kg has increased to $9,850/ton, while the price of Russian Atlantic cod between 1-2kg remains flat at $8,600/ton.
A U.S. importer told UCN: "It's all because of the MMPA, the U.S. can only import raw materials from Norway, not from Russia."
In addition, Chinese exports of pollock to the U.S. will still be subject to a 30% tariff, and the 25% tariff exemption period will expire on November 29, leaving the market with considerable uncertainty. During the National Day Golden Week, Chinese factories are entering a holiday mode, but raw material procurement continues.
A Chinese buyer said that the increased supply of pollock next year will ease some market pressure; additionally, due to the high price of Atlantic cod, some customers are switching to pollock purchases. The Joint Norwegian-Russian Fisheries Commission (JNRFC) recommended increasing the 2026 Barents Sea pollock quota by 18% to 153,293 tons.
For Atlantic cod, the supply next year is likely to continue to decline, with the JNRFC recommending a 21% reduction in the 2026 Barents Sea Atlantic cod quota to 269,440 tons. However, the Russian Federal Fisheries Agency plans to adjust the quota to 315,033 tons and requires Norway to lift sanctions on Russian companies Norebo Holding and Murman SeaFood.
In the saithe market, the price of Russian 25cm+ raw materials continued to rise in the 41st week, with the latest average price at $1,620/ton, only slightly below the highest levels in 2019 and 2022.
A Chinese processing enterprise official said: "In fact, the inventory of saithe is already very scarce, while the demand for finished products is very strong."
Another reason for the rising demand for saithe is the soaring prices of Atlantic cod and pollock, leading merchants to choose cheaper whitefish as a substitute; another market trend is the reduced supply and excessive price increase of frozen saithe fillets, with Chinese-produced secondary frozen saithe fillets and block products gradually becoming an alternative.
Original content
The price increase is mainly due to new U.S. policies, with the U.S. Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA) coming into effect on January 1, 2026, processed semi-finished products of Russian pollock from third countries (mainly China) will no longer be able to be sold to the U.S. Affected by this, the CIF price of Norwegian headless and gutted (H&G) pollock over 800g has risen to $7,150/ton, while the price of Russian pollock between 500g-1kg has risen to $6,150/ton. The price of Norwegian Atlantic cod between 1-2.5kg has increased to $9,850/ton, while the price of Russian Atlantic cod between 1-2kg has remained stable at $8,600/ton. A U.S. importer told UCN: "It's all because of the MMPA, the U.S. can only import raw materials from Norway, and Russian materials cannot be used." In addition, Chinese exports of pollock to the U.S. will still be subject to a 30% tariff, and the additional 25% tariff exemption will expire on November 29, leaving the market with considerable uncertainty. ...
Source: Foodmate
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