The global price of powdered milk in 2023 is forecasted to be flat

Published 2023년 1월 11일

Tridge summary

The 2023 strategy report by Mirae Asset Vietnam Securities Joint Stock Company forecasts an end to the global milk supply recession in the latter half of 2022, with a rebound in milk production in most regions due to falling production costs, except in Australia. The global milk supply is anticipated to increase by 1% in 2023, driven by China's reopening, which is expected to absorb this extra supply. Despite the potential risk of a global consumer demand recession, the price of raw milk powder in 2023 is expected to remain stable at the 2021 level. In Vietnam, milk consumption is projected to rise to 40 liters/person/year by 2030, fueled by the growing middle class. The dairy industry is believed to be less impacted by economic challenges, given its status as a essential nutritional product.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

The 2023 strategy report of Mirae Asset Vietnam Securities Joint Stock Company (Mirae Asset) predicts Rabobank's research that the global milk supply recession after 5 consecutive quarters is likely to end from the fourth quarter of 2022. In 2023, milk supply is expected to recover in most of the region as production costs gradually cool, with the exception of Australia (as weather conditions become more extreme during the El Nino cycle). Specifically, milk production from 7 major exporting countries is estimated to increase by 1% compared to 2022, enough to offset the decrease of 0.8% in 2022 and remain close to the output in 2021. The increased supply is expected to be absorbed by the reopening of China. China's milk import volume is expected to rebound after a decline of 17% year-on-year for whole milk powder and 24% for nonfat powdered milk in 9 months of 2022 (source: AHDB). However, global consumer demand is still facing the risk of recession as GDP forecasts of major ...

Source: Vietstock