The reasons for the recent decline in cocoa prices

(Agraria.pe) After a year of skyrocketing prices, cocoa is losing ground. Last week, it fell below US$ 8,000 per ton, moving away from the US$ 12,931 per ton it reached in 2024. Gilder Meza, a specialist in the cocoa production chain, explains that this scenario has clear reasons for this decline: 1. Falling grinding: less industrial demand Industries are buying less. • Europe: -7.2% • Asia: -16.2% • North America: -2.7% Barry Callebaut has already cut its annual forecast (Financial Times, 2025). “Possible rebound? The drop in prices can incentivize purchases if chocolate manufacturers improve their margins,” explains the analyst. 2. Surplus in sight: recovering supply ICCO estimates a global surplus of 142,000 tons in 2024–25. The weather helped in West Africa and production is rebounding in Ecuador (FDI Forum, 2025). “Change in trend? Agriculture is not stable: an outbreak of disease or adverse weather can quickly change the landscape,” he notes. 3. Rising inventories in the ...