The USDA sharply increased forecasts for global production and ending stocks of wheat for the 2025/26 MY, which will increase pressure on global prices.

In October, the U.S. Department of Agriculture did not release its monthly supply and demand report due to the government shutdown, making the November report highly unexpected for the market. In the new supply and demand balance, USDA experts sharply increased forecasts for global wheat production, consumption, and ending stocks for the 2025/26 MY, leading to a drop in prices to a 2-month low. Indeed, production forecasts in the last two reports have been increased by 22.2 million tons (9.3 million tons in September and 12.89 million tons in November) due to harvest data. Against the backdrop of an improved global balance in the new report, December wheat futures fell: Compared to September estimates, the global wheat balance for the 2025/26 MY has undergone the following ...