Tilapia prices hit a new low! With US-China negotiations unresolved, halted exports crush the farming sector.

According to industry insiders, the ex-factory price for 500-800g tilapia in Guangdong has dropped by another 0.2 yuan this week, reaching a new low, with similar declines seen in Hainan and Guangxi. The current price is insufficient to cover farming costs, leaving farmers with virtually no profit margin. As the concentrated fish delivery period arrives, market supply surges while demand remains frozen, intensifying price pressure.

Currently, the industry's focus is on the new round of U.S.-China trade negotiations. Following the completion of the U.S.-EU agreement, it is widely expected that negotiations between the U.S. and China will follow suit. On July 28, Chinese Vice Premier Hu Chunhua and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin met in Sweden, with both sides expected to reach a new arrangement before the "90-day tariff suspension period" expires on August 12.

Previously, China and the U.S. reached an agreement in Geneva to temporarily reduce the import tariff on Chinese tilapia from 179% to 55%. This brought a brief respite for Chinese exporters, but did not lead to a substantial recovery in purchases. As the tariff suspension period approaches, the U.S. market is increasingly adopting a wait-and-see attitude, leading to a near halt in orders and creating an awkward situation of "falling prices with no market."

"Only if the U.S. and China truly reach an agreement will American buyers resume placing orders," said a person in charge of an export company in Hainan. "Even if we lower our prices, customers remain unresponsive. The risk is too high, and they are unwilling to take a chance."

Moreover, the U.S. domestic wholesale market has not been able to provide effective support. Data from the 30th week shows that the price of Chinese frozen tilapia fillets fell by 0.05 USD/pound compared to the previous week, a decrease of 1.4%-1.6% across all sizes. However, this round of price cuts has not attracted renewed buying interest. Channel inventories remain high, retail consumption is sluggish, and importers are generally in a wait-and-see mode.

A manager of a Guangdong processing factory said, "We are well aware that the tilapia industry is most affected by trade policies. This was a healthy and stable export category, but it has been repeatedly pushed into turbulent waters by political factors." He also revealed that local governments are encouraging companies to seek alternative markets, but the export structure dominated by the U.S. is difficult to change in the short term.

Adding to the woes, some farmers, in anticipation of the potential risks posed by Typhoon "Wapa" at the end of July, rushed to harvest early, accelerating the accumulation of market supply. Under the dual pressure of concentrated market entry and stalled orders, prices have experienced a deep drop not seen in years.

Currently, neither China nor the U.S. has announced the time or details of the next round of public negotiations, and the tariff suspension period on August 12 has become a critical node for the industry. If a new agreement is not reached, the 55% tariff may be raised again, plunging the already struggling tilapia industry into deeper difficulties.

For many Chinese tilapia industry practitioners, the current uncertainty is the real enemy. Amidst international policy games and market fluctuations, they are struggling to find a way out.