US beef headed for supply shock and high prices through 2024, Gro expects

This Insight article was sent to premium Gro users on Wednesday, February 1. To see how you can become a premium Gro user, please schedule a demo with our team here. Heightened beef demand, the US’ shrinking cattle herd, and drought-related feed input cost pressures point to a tightening in US beef supplies and elevated prices into 2025, a new Gro analysis shows. A dwindling herd is signaling that US beef prices are about to return to the records held through 2021, a year when wholesale beef averaged above $280/cwt. Additionally, as heightened demand has increased what consumers are willing to pay for beef, supply constraints could lift prices even higher (see the chart below). Prices for the choice beef cutout, a proxy for US beef prices, are currently averaging just under $280/cwt, on a par with last January as well as average prices for 2022. For much of last year, choice beef cutout prices mildly declined when ranchers liquidated their inventories as pasture land in Western ...