USDA lifts 2025-26 global wheat stocks forecast as higher output offsets record demand

1.3%, from November and 14.8 million tonnes, or 6%, above the estimated 260.03 million tonnes in 2024-25. If realized, the carryover would be the ninth-largest on record. Alongside higher stocks, the USDA lifted its outlook for global wheat supplies, consumption and trade. Wheat futures reacted in mixed fashion after the report, reflecting that much of the updated data had already been priced in. “The thing is the market knew all this, it wasn’t anything that we didn’t already anticipate,” said Mike O’Dea, risk management consultant for StoneX in Kansas City. “Because of all the production numbers we’ve seen coming out of Australia and Argentina, and we figured they would raise the Russian crop, so that was already baked in the market. Wheat’s stuck and not going anywhere for a while.” The USDA raised its 2025-26 global wheat production forecast to 837.81 million tonnes, up 8.92 million tonnes from November and 37.04 million tonnes, or 5%, above 2024-25 levels. Canada’s wheat crop ...