Global: USDA raised its forecast for rapeseed production in Ukraine

Published 2024년 3월 12일

Tridge summary

The USDA has revised its forecast for global rapeseed production in 2023/24 MY upwards to 88.1 million tonnes, attributing the increase to Ukraine, Russia, and India. However, Russia's export ban on rapeseed, which has been extended until August 2024, could affect these projections. The ban, coupled with reduced supplies from Ukraine and higher canola prices in Canada, has led to a surge in rapeseed prices. Despite the increase, Canadian canola prices are still lower than EU rapeseed, which could result in increased European purchases if the trend continues.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

In the March report, the USDA experts raised the forecast of global rapeseed production in 2023/24 MY by 0.7 to 88.1 (88.82) mln tonnes, in particular for Ukraine – by 0.1 to 4.4 mln tonnes, Russia – by 0.1 to 4.2 mln tonnes, India – by 0.5 to 12.5 mln tonnes. The forecast for rapeseed exports from Russia was increased by 0.1 to 0.7 million tons, but it is unlikely to be realized due to the export ban. The Russian authorities extended the ban on rapeseed exports until August 31, 2024, to provide raw materials to local companies. The ban does not apply to exports to the EAEU countries and deliveries by rail and road through the Zabaikalskoye checkpoint on the border with China. amid the ban on exports from Russia, reduced supplies from Ukraine and higher prices for canola in Canada, rapeseed prices continue to rise. Yesterday, the may futures for rapeseed on the Paris MATIF increased by 1.8% to 430,75 €/t or 471 $/t (+3.2% for the week, +3.1% for the month). May canola futures on ...

Source: UkrAgroConsult