Vietnam's basa fish supply is tight, pond prices continue to fall, market outlook is complex.

Supply tensions, yet prices are falling The latest data from the 5th week of 2026 shows that the head price of Vietnamese basa fish ponds has declined, particularly for large-sized fish (over 1300 grams), with some areas seeing a price drop of up to 1500 Vietnamese dong/kg. Specifically, the price of small-sized raw fish (800-1300 grams) is between 31,000-32,000 Vietnamese dong/kg (approximately 4.3-4.4 yuan/jin), while the price of large-sized fish is also maintained at 32,000-33,000 Vietnamese dong/kg (approximately 4.4-4.5 yuan/jin), showing a trend of falling prices. Industry analysis points out that although the market is facing supply tensions, the price drop is not entirely due to a decrease in demand. In fact, this phenomenon is more due to the dual factors of aquaculture farmers being cautious in releasing fry and rising aquaculture costs. Adverse weather and high costs have led farmers to reduce the release of new fry, which in turn has affected the supply of mature fish, leading to price fluctuations. Fry prices soar, supply chain pressure increases At the same time, the tension in the fry market is becoming increasingly apparent. It is understood that in December 2025, the price of Vietnamese basa fish fry once soared to 90,000 Vietnamese dong/kg (approximately 12.6 yuan/jin), rising by over 50% compared to the previous year. This price increase is mainly due to extreme weather affecting the survival rate of fry, leading to supply tensions, and forcing farmers to replenish fry multiple times, further pushing up the price of fry. As aquaculture costs continue to rise, many farmers have chosen to delay or reduce the amount of fry released, which has undoubtedly exacerbated the shortage of mature fish, further driving up the price of raw fish. Market outlook: Price fluctuations are expected to continue Although prices have been reduced, the supply tension in the market has not been alleviated. With the approaching peak consumption season of the Spring Festival, market demand is expected to rise, which may lead to a price increase. At the same time, due to the continued restriction of supply of large-sized basa fish, price fluctuations remain an important focus in the coming months. In summary, the current situation of the Vietnamese basa fish market is complex and full of uncertainties, with supply chain tensions and price fluctuations coexisting. It is expected that in the coming time, prices will remain volatile at a high level, especially under the condition of tight supply of large-sized fish, the uncertainty in the market will further increase.