What South African consumers can expect from food price inflation this year

Published 2021년 4월 1일

Tridge summary

The South African Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) has revised its forecast for 2020/21 summer grain and oilseeds production by 1% to 18.7 million tonnes, with increases in maize, soybeans, and sorghum production. The country is expected to remain a net exporter of maize in the 2021/22 marketing year, with over 2 million tonnes available for export. Despite the large harvest, South Africa may continue to depend on imports of soybean meal to meet poultry sector demand. Domestic maize and soybean spot prices have decreased and increased by 18% and 17% year-over-year, respectively. The production estimate adjustments and favourable rainfall contribute to optimism about consumer food price inflation for 2021.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

Last week, the South African Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) mildly lifted its forecast for 2020/21 summer grain and oilseeds production from the previous month by 1% to 18,7 million tonnes (this compared with 17,6 million tonnes in 2019/20 production season). The upward adjustments were on maize, soybeans and sorghum, whereas sunflower seed, dry bean and groundnut production were revised. If we zoom into significant crops, the 2020/21 maize, soybean and sunflower seed harvests are forecast at 15,9 million tonnes (up 4% y/y, and second-largest harvest on record), 1,7 million tonnes (up 39% y/y, a record harvest), and 696 290 tonnes (down 12% y/y). The maize production estimate is slightly below the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz) ‘s estimated 16,7 million tonnes and the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP)’s estimated 17,0 million tonnes. Considering the optimistic yield estimates we (at Agbiz) received from farmers and observations in places we have ...

Source: Farmingportal