Wheat stock quotes expect a sharp improvement in the global balance, while prices in Ukraine have already begun to fall

Speculative wheat price growth, triggered by attacks on civilian ships in the Black Sea, has stalled. The market is awaiting today’s bearish USDA report, which could sharply increase wheat production forecasts in Argentina, Australia and Canada (according to official estimates) and world wheat stocks. Statistics Canada (StatCan) has raised its estimate of wheat production in the country to a record 40 million tonnes, although the USDA in November estimated it at 37 million tonnes. Soft wheat quotes in Chicago have risen 3.6% in two weeks and are trading at last month’s level, but today the market will feel strong pressure from the updated report. Yesterday, December wheat futures fell: Wheat exports from the USA in the MY 2025/26 (as of December 7) amounted to 13.634 million tons, which is 20.91% more than in the same period last year. In the 6 months of the season, 55% of the volume forecast for the entire marketing year has already been exported. The improvement in the condition ...