Expectations Are High for Mango Exports from India despite Adverse Weather

Published 2023년 6월 13일

In India, mango-producing regions have different harvest periods, depending on the geographical location. Adverse weather in the form of heat waves and unseasonal rains has significantly impacted mango production, with losses estimated at 30% in Northern India and over 8% in Southern India. The country has been diversifying markets, with increased mango exports to Japan and South Korea, while trade with the US has resumed following bans in 2020 and 2021. Due to increasing demand, traders believe the mango export volume to the US will exceed 2,000 MT in 2023. Fresh mango prices in India will likely grow due to increased domestic and international demand.

As the mango season in Southern India is ending, it is only getting started in Northern India, affecting the quantities available in the market in the following period. With a bumper mango crop of about 3.5 million mt expected in Uttar Pradesh (UP), traders are preparing for shipments to Asia, the EU, and Gulf countries. Adverse weather in the form of excessive rains, hailstorms, and strong winds has affected the yield of fresh mangoes which is expected to drop by 20% nationwide, from last year’s 21 million mt. So far, due to unstable quantities arriving, mango prices have been volatile. However, overall demand is increasing, and with exports starting, it is anticipated that the price for the top quality mangoes will go up. More on price movements in India can be found in The Wholesale Price of Fresh Mangoes Soared 44.94% WoW.

Mango trees in northern India often bloom between February and March, coinciding with increased heat waves. According to a recent study conducted by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the frequency and length of heat waves in the country have grown by around 2.5 days over the last 30 years, primarily due to global warming. These climatic fluctuations have had a negative influence on mango agriculture in India as well as mango exports.

For CY 2023, mango losses are heaviest in Northern India, particularly in Uttar Pradesh, the top state in domestic mango production, where losses could approach 30% in some areas. Losses in Southern India are anticipated to be over 8%. Mangoes are grown in 14 districts in Uttar Pradesh, including Lucknow, Unnao, Pratapgarh, Moradabad, Hardoi, Bulandshahr, and Barabanki. Besides the iconic Dussehra mango variety, other UP types include Langda, Chausa, Amrapali, and Mallika. Due to its sweet taste and lilting aroma, Dussehra accounts for most of the state's mango exports.

*Data for 2022 are presented from the authors' estimation and Tridge research department

Source: TradeMap and Tridge

Mango exports are divided into fresh mango, pulp, and slices. In recent years, India has expanded its mango export to countries like Japan and South Korea. Gulf Countries, like the UAE and Saudi Arabia, lead India's export share despite declining trends in recent years, while EU countries and the US are gaining importance for traders.

Trade to the US has rebounded after mango exports were banned in 2020 and 2021. Inspectors from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) could not enter India to inspect irradiation facilities due to Covid-19 travel restrictions. India's mangoes currently supplied to the US undergo irradiation treatment, eliminating quarantine pests within the fruit. Still, nations such as Japan and South Korea prefer fruit imports that have undergone vapor heat treatment and hot water treatment to eliminate pests. Traders are convinced that strong demand in 2023 will drive the export volume of mangoes to the US to surpass 2,000 mt which is almost double the figure compared to the previous year.

Tridge expects that due to adverse weather conditions, overall yields of fresh mangoes in India will decline, hindering exports. On the other hand, the price of fresh mangoes in India is expected to rise, driven by increased local and abroad demand from the EU and GCC countries, as well as Asian countries.