Spanish Tomato Exports Have Declined, Paving the Way for Morocco’s Expansion

Published 2023년 12월 21일

The worldwide tomato industry has undergone a substantial shift in recent decades, with a drop in Spanish tomato exports and Morocco's development as an essential player. Weather circumstances in Spain have resulted in a 34% decline in tomato exports between 2008 and 2022, leading to a price increase. Conversely, Morocco's tomato exports have progressively increased, affecting the European market throughout the 2022/23 season. Morocco's tomato exports accounted for 2.4% of overall exports, with a 35% YoY export volume rise in 2022/23. However, supply difficulties from October to December caused tomato prices to soar. Spain lowered Moroccan tomato imports by 40.19% while increasing Portuguese imports by 69.24%.

The global tomato market has changed dramatically over the last decade. One of the most noticeable shifts has been the decrease in Spanish tomato exports and the rise of Morocco as a key market player. Unfavorable weather conditions in Spain have adversely affected the export of fresh vegetables and fruits, especially tomatoes, resulting in an 8% decline during the H1-23. This has led to a significant surge in prices.

Spanish tomato exports experienced a notable 34% drop between 2008 and 2022, falling from 957.6 million kilograms (kg) to 629.27 million kg. Despite the decrease in volume, the revenue from these exports increased due to a rise in the average price per kilo. In contrast, Morocco steadily increased its tomato exports, substantially impacting the European market during the 2022/23 season. Diversifying its market, Morocco exported 727,000 metric tons (mt) of tomatoes last season, overcoming challenges like the Tomato brown rugose fruit virus (ToBRFV) and adverse weather conditions. Morocco's tomato exports constituted 2.4% of the country's total exports, with a 35% production increase in 2022/23.

Figure 1: Wholesale prices of fresh tomatoes in Spain

Wholesale prices of fresh tomatoes in Spain-Tridge

Source: Tridge

Adverse weather conditions in Spain in 2023 have resulted in a tomato shortage, causing prices to soar. For instance, the price of cherry tomatoes surged to USD 2.72/kg, monitored by Tridge in On-the-Ground Update. Between 2008 and 2022, Spanish tomato exports decreased by 34%, while revenue grew as the average price per kg increased from EUR 0.89 to EUR 1.75. Due to heat and delayed seedbeds, tomato growing in Almera has been postponed in the 2023/24 season. This has resulted in rising prices, with prices lowering as output increases. Tomato prices in the center week of November were higher than the previous season's average owing to restricted availability, the end of the European season, and Moroccan tomato production concerns.

Figure 2: Comparison of import/export volume of fresh tomatoes from Spain 2018 to 2022

Export/Import volume of Spanish tomatoes

Source: Tridge, TradeMap

Despite challenges, Morocco saw a 35% increase in tomato exports during the 2022/23 season. However, supply shortages from October to December led to a rise in tomato prices. Interestingly, from Jan-23 to Sep-23, Spain reduced its tomato imports from Morocco by 40.19%, while imports from Portugal increased by 69.24%. The average price of Moroccan tomatoes imported into Spain rose from EUR 0.72 to EUR 1.50/kg.

The decline in Spanish tomato shipments has allowed Morocco to expand its global presence. However, the market dynamics are intricate, influenced by weather, diseases, and pricing trends. Tridge anticipates further growth of Morocco’s presence in the European Union market, making the Spanish farmers' situation more difficult in the upcoming years.