1. Weekly News

Bangladesh

Rice Prices Declined 16% WoW in Eastern Bangladesh Due to Port Seals and Local Harvests

Bangladesh’s recent closure of land ports with India and the arrival of new local harvests has led to a 16% week-on-week (WoW) decline in rice prices in the eastern region. Traders anticipate further price decreases. The price of parboiled Miniket rice, which was previously imported into Bangladesh at a rate of 45 thousand metric tons (mt) to 50 thousand mt per month, has dropped from USD 0.73 per kilogram (kg) in W16 to USD 0.62/kg in W17.

Indonesia

Indonesia Aims for Rice Self-Sufficiency Through 2026

In Apr-25, Indonesian officials strongly projected rice self-sufficiency, asserting that the country would not need to import rice until at least 2026. The Coordinating Minister for Food highlighted that national rice stocks had surpassed 3 million metric tons (mmt) by late Apr-25, crediting the surplus to the Indonesia Planting Movement and improved irrigation systems. Domestic production will sufficiently meet national demand if weather conditions remain stable, especially with no prolonged dry season forecast. Supporting this outlook, the Minister of Agriculture announced a planting target of 1.3 million hectares (ha) for Apr-25. Officials expect this effort to produce around 7.5 mmt of paddy, equivalent to 3.5 to 4 mmt of rice. In particular, South Sumatra aims to boost its rice output from 2.9 mmt in 2024 to an estimated 3.7 mmt in 2025.

Philippines

Philippines Hits Five-Year High in Rice Reserves with Scope for Further Purchases

As of April 22, the Philippines' National Food Authority (NFA) reported rice reserves of 7.17 million 50-kg bags, the highest level in five years. This is mainly due to higher paddy procurement prices, which averaged USD 0.48/kg in Apr-25 versus USD 0.43/kg in Apr-24. Despite this increase in inventory, the NFA still has substantial purchasing capacity, with only USD 42 million spent from its USD 260 million rice procurement budget, allowing it to buy an additional 500 thousand mt of paddy rice (about 6.3 million bags). The revised Rice Tariffication Law requires the NFA to maintain a 15-day rice buffer stock, up from nine days, with supplies sourced primarily from local farmers. To meet this mandate, the agency is enhancing storage capacity to accommodate up to 555 thousand mt of rice, equivalent to 880 thousand mt of paddy rice, through infrastructure upgrades such as warehouses and processing facilities.

Russia

Russia Plans to Extend Unhusked Rice Export Ban and Introduce Tariff Quota for Husked Rice

The Russian Ministry of Agriculture (Minselkhoz) has proposed extending the ban on unhusked rice exports until the end of 2025, with some exceptions. In addition, the ministry has set a tariff quota of 50 thousand mt for husked rice and rice groats exports. Under this quota, there will be no export duty for the intra-quota rate, while the extra-quota rate will be subject to a 50% duty. The ministry is also exploring the potential for exporting processed rice starting in 2026, contingent on a rice harvest exceeding 1.1 mmt.

Thailand

Thailand's Rice Exports Down 30% YoY in Q1-25 Due to Global Trade Shifts

In Q1-25, Thailand's rice exports dropped 30% year-on-year (YoY) to 2.1 mmt, according to the Thai Rice Exporters Association. The decline was mainly due to delayed imports from some countries and the resumption of Indian rice exports. Full-year exports may fall short of the previously forecast 7.5 mmt, with Q2-25 volumes expected to mirror Q1-25. Exporters are cautiously optimistic about increased United States (US) orders after the administration postponed reciprocal tariffs for 90 days. However, Thailand risks losing its position as the world’s second-largest rice exporter if the US imposes tariffs above 10%. The Thai Finance Minister is in Washington this week to negotiate lower tariff rates, which currently reach up to 36%. Thailand exported 9.94 mmt of rice in 2024, with the US as its third-largest buyer.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Rice Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Rice Pricing Important Exporters (W17 2024 to W17 2025) 

India

In W17, India's wholesale rice prices increased 1.56% WoW to USD 0.65/kg from USD 0.64/kg. India’s rice production faced challenges due to the delayed monsoon and drought conditions in key producing states like Uttar Pradesh and Punjab. This led to concerns over reduced yields and tightening domestic supply. Moreover, there has been stronger export demand, particularly from neighboring countries such as Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, where demand for rice remains robust due to supply shortages. India's rice exports have surged, with shipments to Bangladesh up by 15% YoY in Q1-25, contributing to upward price pressure. Furthermore, global rice supply has been constrained due to poor harvests in other exporting countries like Vietnam and Thailand, making India a key supplier in the global market.

Vietnam

In W17, Vietnamese rice prices experienced a significant decline of 11.48% WoW and month-on-month (MoM), to USD 0.54/kg. This decline is largely due to the ongoing harvest in areas like Trà Vinh, which has led to a temporary oversupply of fresh rice. However, the fresh rice supply is beginning to dwindle, particularly in regions such as An Giang, Kiên Giang, and Bạc Liêu, where harvests have slowed. Despite the low transaction volumes, demand for specific rice varieties remains robust. In Bạc Liêu, prices for ST (fragrant) rice have risen due to strong demand, while other regions have seen higher demand for OM 5451 rice, which has also helped maintain stable prices. However, the slow pace of warehouse transactions has contributed to the overall price stability, preventing further price fluctuations. Moreover, the export market for Vietnamese rice remains stable, with set prices for various grades of broken rice, offering some support to the domestic market amidst the price decrease.

United States

In W17, US rice prices remained stable WoW and MoM since W14, but declined by 3.75% YoY, reaching USD 0.77/kg due to a significant increase in production levels for the 2024/25 crop year. Total US rice production is estimated at approximately 8.6 mmt, marking a 3% YoY increase. Moreover, a global decrease in rice prices, especially from major exporters like India and Thailand, led to more competitive pricing on the international market, reducing demand for US rice. While domestic demand for rice remained steady, the drop in export opportunities and lower global prices were key factors contributing to the YoY price decline.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Enhance Rice Stockpile Management

Bangladesh should focus on enhancing its rice stockpile management to stabilize rice prices. By investing in strategic rice stockpiling, the country can secure rice supplies during harvest periods when prices are lower. Improving storage infrastructure, such as modern warehouses with temperature and humidity controls, would help preserve the quality of rice and reduce post-harvest losses. Furthermore, Bangladesh could diversify its sourcing strategies by engaging with multiple suppliers and reducing reliance on imports from any country. This approach would make Bangladesh more resilient to geopolitical disruptions or trade barriers.

Focus on Increasing Local Rice Production

Indonesia should focus on expanding and modernizing its irrigation systems to enhance rice productivity, particularly in areas that face drought risks, such as South Sumatra. By improving access to water resources, the country can reduce dependence on seasonal rainfall and ensure a more reliable water supply for rice cultivation. Furthermore, providing smallholder farmers access to high-quality seeds, fertilizers, and agricultural technologies would improve yields and reduce input costs, helping to stabilize domestic rice production. Investing in climate-resilient rice varieties would protect production from extreme weather events such as floods or droughts. Through these measures, Indonesia could boost local production, reduce import dependency, and enhance food security while stabilizing rice prices in the domestic market.

Diversify Export Markets

Thailand’s rice export industry has faced challenges, including increased competition from other countries, particularly India, and the potential for higher tariffs from the US. This could threaten Thailand’s position as one of the world’s leading rice exporters. Thailand should focus on diversifying its rice export markets. The country should explore new markets in emerging regions like Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asia, where rising populations and urbanization increase the demand for rice. By targeting these regions, Thailand can tap into new sources of demand and reduce its reliance on traditional markets.

Strengthening relationships with existing buyers in Asia, Africa, and Europe is equally important, ensuring continued demand for Thai rice through promotional deals, product differentiation, and outreach efforts. Thailand should pursue trade agreements that offer preferential terms or reduced tariffs in key markets, such as the US, to protect its export competitiveness. Lastly, Thailand could invest in a digital marketing campaign to promote the unique qualities of Thai rice, such as its fragrance and texture, to global consumers. This strategy would help Thailand secure new market opportunities and maintain its position in the global rice trade despite emerging challenges.

Sources: Tridge, Ekonomi Republika, Hellenic Shipping News, SpecAgro, VietnamBiz, UkrAgroConsult