1. Weekly News

Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan Projects 2 MMT Sunflower Seed Harvest, Boosting Export Potential

Kazakhstan’s sunflower seed production is projected to reach 2 million metric tons (mmt) in 2025, contributing to an estimated 4 mmt of total oilseeds. This output is expected to fully meet domestic demand and enhance the country’s export potential for oil and fat products. The government continues to support grain and oilseed exports through transportation subsidies, aiming to expand market access while maintaining a strong export orientation.

Russia

Russia Eyes Record Sunflower Oil Output and Second-Largest Exporter Status Amidst Market Shifts

This season, Russia’s sunflower oil sector is poised for record output despite drought in the South. The Oil and Fat Union projects sunflower oil production at 7.3 mmt, driving total vegetable oil output above 10.5 mmt, a 7.5% year-on-year (YoY) increase. Processing utilization is expected to reach 90%, compared with 80% in 2024/25, making the current season a “buyer’s year.” Export prices remain high but are expected to move sideways, influenced mainly by ruble fluctuations and moderated by the floating export duty. While processors started the season with negative margins, stabilization and profitability are anticipated as the harvest advances. With an estimated 18 mmt of sunflower harvest, Russia is set to become the world’s second-largest sunflower oil exporter. However, export diversification, particularly for meal, is needed as European Union (EU) restrictions tighten, with key opportunities emerging in China, Bangladesh, Iran, and Vietnam.

Russia Considers Sunflower Oil Production in Egypt to Boost Agricultural Exports

Russia is exploring the establishment of sunflower oil production in Egypt, which was discussed during a recent Russian delegation visit to Cairo led by Russia's Deputy Prime Minister. As of W39, Russia exports over USD 3 billion in agricultural products to Egypt, with sunflower oil representing 13% of exports. The initiative aims to strengthen agricultural cooperation and leverage Egypt’s role as a logistics and investment hub in North Africa and the Middle East. This move complements broader Russian efforts to expand agricultural trade with key partners, including China, where sunflower seed and other oilseed exports have recently increased.

Russia Seeks to Expand Sunflower Oil Exports to India Following Shift in Ukrainian Supplies

Russia, the world’s largest sunflower oil producer, is targeting increased exports to India to replace Ukrainian supplies being redirected to Europe. India’s role as a major energy buyer and its search for alternative trade partners amid United States (US) tariffs support this expansion, presenting an opportunity for Russia to strengthen its sunflower oil market presence in the region.

Türkiye

Ağrı Expands Sunflower Cultivation

Sunflower cultivation in Ağrı has expanded to 5,000 hectares (ha) for the 2025 season, up from 3,450 ha last year, and is expected to contribute USD 18.18 million (TRY 758 million) to the provincial economy. Of the total area, 1,500 ha are allocated for sunflower oil and 3,700 ha for confectionery sunflower, reflecting higher profitability and contracted production. Average yields are 220 kilogram (kg) per ha for sunflower oil and 290 kg/ha for confectionery, with anticipated market prices of USD 1.56 to 1.68/kg (TRY 65 to 70/kg) for confectionery sunflower. Expansion has been supported by improved irrigation infrastructure, and producers report satisfaction with both quality and quantity of the harvest.

Bolu Launches Sunflower Harvest Covering 2,350 HA Under National Development Project

The sunflower harvest has commenced in Bolu, Türkiye, covering 2,350 ha (23,500 decares) under the Oil Sunflower Production Development Project. The initiative, part of the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry’s TAKE Project, provided 930 seed packets to 415 producers, aiming for 5,900 mt of sunflower and an estimated economic value of USD 3.39 million (TRY 141.7 million). The harvest began with a field day ceremony in Karamanlar village, attended by provincial officials, where the Governor inaugurated the event by harvesting the first sunflowers.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Sunflower Oil Pricing Top Producers (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Sunflower Oil Pricing Top Producers (W39 2024 to W39 2025) 

Russia

In W39, Russia’s sunflower oil prices held steady at USD 1.17/kg, an increase of 18.18% YoY from USD 0.99/kg. While drought in southern regions such as Rostov, Krasnodar, and Donetsk has caused localized yield reductions, higher production in central, Volga, and Siberian areas is expected to offset these losses, maintaining the 2025/26 harvest forecast at 18–18.3 mmt and potentially reaching a record 19.5 mmt. Strong domestic output and Russia’s strategic push to expand exports to India, replacing Ukrainian supplies diverted to Europe, are likely to support price stability and strengthen Russia’s global market position, though increased export volumes could moderate price growth if supply outpaces demand in key markets.

Ukraine

Ukraine’s sunflower oil prices rose 0.82% WoW to USD 1.23/kg, sustaining a 24.24% YoY increase, supported by a delayed harvest and below-average yields. As of mid-September, only 26.7% of sunflower areas were harvested, with yields down to 1.76 mt/ha from 2.01 mt/ha last year, constraining near-term supply. However, as harvesting accelerates and supply flows increase, downward pressure is likely, reflected in some processors already reducing bids. Export prices have softened by USD 10/mt to USD 1,170–1,180/mt for Black Sea deliveries in Sep-25 to Oct-25, further pressured by lower Russian FOB prices at USD 1,150–1,160/mt, and expectations of expanded Argentine supply following export duty cuts. This divergence suggests that while current tight supply supports domestic values, Ukrainian sunflower oil prices may face correction in the coming months as global competition intensifies and buyers adopt a cautious stance.

Argentina

In W39, Argentina’s sunflower oil prices remained stable at USD 1.15/kg, up 18.55% YoY from USD 0.97/kg in W39 2024. The temporary lifting of export duties on agricultural products has increased market uncertainty, as Argentine sunflower and soybean oil are being sold at significant discounts. This surge in discounted exports adds to the global seasonal supply, likely exerting downward pressure on Argentine sunflower oil prices in the near term.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Expand Strategic Export Partnerships and Market Diversification

Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan should accelerate efforts to diversify export markets beyond the EU, targeting high-growth regions such as India, Bangladesh, Iran, Vietnam, and North Africa. Investments in joint ventures, like Russia’s proposed production facilities in Egypt, can strengthen long-term market access while reducing exposure to EU trade restrictions and price competition.

Leverage Logistics and Processing Efficiency for Competitive Pricing

Producers and processors in Russia, Kazakhstan, and Türkiye should prioritize investments in transportation subsidies, storage facilities, and high-capacity crushing plants to maximize throughput during record harvests. Improved efficiency will help sustain profitability despite sideways price trends and global competition from Argentine discounted exports.

Adopt Climate-Resilient Cultivation and Regional Expansion

Farmers in drought-prone regions such as southern Russia and Ukraine should adopt climate-resilient seed varieties, expand irrigation networks, and promote diversified cultivation across central and northern regions. This approach will stabilize yields, ensure processing utilization near 90%, and safeguard export volumes, strengthening the resilience of global sunflower oil supply chains.

Sources: Tridge, Agro Investor, Grain Trade, Kamu3, Ukr Agroconsult, Foodmate, Agri.BG, Reuters