1. Weekly News

Global

Global Rice Prices Fall to Lowest Since Nov-20 Amid Record Supply Forecasts for 2025/26

Global rice prices have dropped to their lowest level since Nov-20, reaching USD 12 per 100 pounds (lbs), driven by forecasts of increased global supply. According to the United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA) May-25 forecast, global rice production in the 2025/26 marketing year (MY) is expected to hit a record 538.7 million metric tons (mmt), mainly due to higher outputs in India, Bangladesh, and China. India is projected to achieve a record rice harvest for the tenth consecutive year, although reduced planted area may slightly lower production levels. Global rice consumption is also forecast to reach an all-time high of 538.8 mmt, fueled by strong demand in India, Bangladesh, Nigeria, and the Philippines. In contrast, China’s rice consumption is expected to remain stable, as cheaper feed grain prices reduce the need to use rice as livestock feed.

Japan

Japan to Release 300 Thousand MT from Rice Stockpile to Curb Soaring Prices and Shortages

Japan plans to release an additional 300 thousand metric tons (mt) of rice from its emergency stockpile between May-25 and Jul-25 to address ongoing shortages and soaring prices, marking the second such intervention this year. Retail rice prices have doubled over 2024, driven by extreme heat and a surge in tourism-related demand. In response, the government will revise its purchasing policy by shortening the replacement period for the released rice from five years to one, and will streamline the distribution process to bypass wholesalers and reach consumers more quickly. The rice, which still requires milling and packaging, will be auctioned in three batches of 100 thousand mt per month. As domestic prices remain high, consumers have increasingly turned to more affordable foreign rice brands.

Indonesia

Indonesia Tops ASEAN Rice Producers with 34.6 MMT in 2025, Reduces Import Dependence

Indonesia’s agricultural sector continues to show a positive trend, with rice production projected to reach 34.6 mmt in 2025, marking a 4.8% year-on-year (YoY) increase from the previous year. This growth places Indonesia as the top rice producer in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), ahead of Vietnam (26.5 mmt), Thailand (20.1 mmt), the Philippines (12 mmt), Cambodia (7.337 mmt), Laos (1.8 mmt), and Malaysia (1.75 mmt). The surge in domestic production has enabled Indonesia to reverse its previous dependence on rice imports. This shift has put pressure on regional exporters like Thailand, whose rice export volume dropped by 30% in the first quarter of 2025. To support farmers and stabilize the domestic market, the Indonesian government has been actively absorbing rice at the established government purchase price (GPP), ensuring that the harvest is optimally utilized and that farmers earn profitable incomes.

Vietnam

Vietnam to Retain Second Spot in Global Rice Trade in 2025/26 Despite Slight Output Decline

According to the USDA, Vietnam is projected to simultaneously rank as the world’s second-largest rice importer and exporter in 2025, maintaining this position through 2026. In the 2025/26 crop year, Vietnam’s rice production is expected to reach 26.95 mmt (milled basis), slightly down from 27.2 mmt in 2024/25. This modest decline is due to a shrinking planting area, the impacts of climate change, and high input costs. Despite the reduced output, rice exports are forecast to remain stable at 7.9 mmt, securing Vietnam’s place among the top three global rice exporters alongside India and Thailand. However, the country will face mounting competition from India, Pakistan, and Myanmar, and rice prices are unlikely to rise significantly in 2025 due to abundant global supply. On the import side, Vietnam is expected to purchase around 4 mmt of rice, a slight drop from 4.1 mmt in the previous season.

These imports mainly consist of premium fragrant rice from Cambodia and Thailand, serving niche high-end segments, and are often brought in via northern border gates for re-export, processing, or domestic consumption. Domestic consumption is forecast to remain steady at approximately 20.65 mmt, while ending stocks are projected to rise slightly to 3.39 mmt, helping to stabilize the local market and support export readiness when favorable opportunities arise.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Rice Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Rice Pricing Important Exporters (W20 2024 to W20 2025) 

India

In W20, India's wholesale rice prices remained stable week-on-week (WoW) and month-on-month (MoM) at USD 0.65 per kilogram (kg), but registered a 1.52% YoY decline. The annual price decrease is largely due to ample domestic supplies following strong procurement by the Food Corporation of India (FCI) and a good 2024/25 Rabi harvest. Moreover, subdued export demand, especially for non-basmati rice due to ongoing export restrictions and high tariffs, has limited upward price movement. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, India's rice production for the 2024/25 crop year is projected at 135.5 mmt, slightly higher than the previous year, reinforcing a stable supply outlook and easing inflationary pressure in the domestic market.

Vietnam

In W20, Vietnamese rice prices remained unchanged WoW and MoM but declined by 10% YoY to USD 0.54/kg. This YoY drop was driven by peak harvest activity in key regions like Trà Vinh, resulting in a temporary surplus that weighed on domestic prices. While the government intervened by purchasing rice from reserves to stabilize the market, demand remained weak and trading volumes low, according to Ho Chi Minh City traders. Furthermore, Vietnam's rice export performance weakened, with the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment reporting USD 1.75 billion in export value during the first four months of 2025, down 14.3% YoY, mainly due to lower global prices offered by competing exporters, which pressured Vietnam's average export price and limited profitability.

United States

In W20, United States (US) rice prices remained steady WoW and MoM at USD 0.77/kg but fell 3.75% YoY. The YoY decline was due to improved production conditions across key rice-growing states like Arkansas and California, which boosted domestic supply and eased upward price pressures. Moreover, unlike in 2024, when droughts and transportation issues along the Mississippi River constrained logistics and raised costs, the 2025 season has seen fewer disruptions, improving supply chain efficiency. On the international front, strong competition from major exporters like Vietnam and India, who offered more competitively priced rice, has weakened US rice export demand, contributing to a softer price environment despite stable domestic consumption.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Diversify Rice Varieties and Expand Value-Added Processing to Boost Export Competitiveness

Vietnam remains a top rice exporter but faces stiff competition from India, Pakistan, and Myanmar, alongside declining planting areas due to climate change. To sustain export volumes and margins, Vietnam should diversify its rice portfolio by promoting premium and specialty rice varieties like Jasmine (Thai Hom Mali), OM 5451, and ST 25 that cater to niche markets. Moreover, expanding value-added processing capabilities, such as parboiling, packaging innovations, and branding for premium quality, can differentiate Vietnamese rice in global markets. Investments in research and development to improve yield, stress tolerance, and grain quality will also be essential. These strategies can help Vietnam maintain stable export revenues despite lower prices while meeting the increasing demand for fragrant and specialty rice in high-end international segments.

Enhance Post-Harvest Infrastructure and Market Linkages to Support Growing Production

Indonesia’s rice production will increase by nearly 5% in 2025, making it ASEAN’s top producer. To fully capitalize on this growth and reduce losses, Indonesia should prioritize enhancing post-harvest infrastructure, including modern milling, drying, and storage facilities. Investing in improved storage technology will help maintain grain quality and reduce post-harvest losses, which are critical as the country shifts away from rice imports. Moreover, developing efficient market linkages between farmers, government agencies, and buyers will ensure smooth absorption through government purchase programs and commercial sales. Strengthening these supply chain components will stabilize farmer incomes, reduce wastage, and improve Indonesia’s rice market resilience amid fluctuating regional export dynamics.

Promote High-Yield and Stress-Tolerant Rice Varieties to Sustain Production Amid Export Challenges

As the world’s largest rice producer, India faces export restrictions and high tariffs that limit market growth despite an ample domestic supply. To maintain production levels and improve farmer profitability, India should invest more in adopting and promoting high-yield, stress-tolerant rice varieties such as IR64, Swarna Sub1, and MTU 1010. These varieties are known for their resilience to flood, drought, and salinity stresses while delivering high yields. Expanding the use of these varieties will help farmers adapt to climate variability and optimize production even with fluctuating planted areas. Moreover, combining these improved varieties with precision agriculture technologies can enhance resource use efficiency and reduce production costs, strengthening India’s competitive position in global rice markets despite current export restrictions.

Sources: Tridge, Agropopular, AgroInfo.vn, Grain Trade, Republika