1. Weekly News

Argentina

Argentina Forecasts Near-Record Grain Harvest with Strong Sunflower Oil Outlook

Argentina is on track for its second-largest grain harvest in history, projecting 135.7 million tons for the 2024/25 season, up 2% from the previous cycle. This is driven by a 4% increase in planted area and improved yields in key crops like wheat and sunflower. Sunflower stood out with a 24.8% year-on-year (YoY) rise in production, reaching 4.7 million tons. This is fueled by strong yields and 2.2 million hectares (ha) sown. This surge also supports a projected 8.2% increase in sunflower crushing, reflecting growing industrial demand. Overall grain exports are set to rise 3% to 97.4 million tons, with sunflower oil poised to gain prominence in both volume and added value as global demand for vegetable oils remains strong.

Seasonal Surge in Argentine and Russian Sunflower Oil Supplies Pressures Ukrainian Prices

Seasonal increases in sunflower oil supplies from Argentina and Russia are driving down Ukrainian sunflower prices and pressuring local procurement costs. Argentina’s record 4.7 million tons sunflower harvest has boosted Indian imports of its oil, while Russia’s sunflower oil prices have fallen due to lowered export duties and reduced domestic sunflower prices. From late April to mid-May, Russian sunflower prices dropped about 1%, and sunflower oil prices decreased by 0.5%, though processing margins remain negative. Export duties on Russian sunflower oil were halved in April, further lowering export prices.

Ukrainian export prices also declined amid intensified competition from Argentine and Russian oil in India and reduced European demand linked to falling oil and rapeseed oil prices. Despite steady supply offers and favorable weather improving new crop prospects, processing margins remain low, causing small Ukrainian crushers to idle and some processing plants to be put up for sale. Rising crude oil prices are supporting soybean oil prices, but palm oil prices remain under pressure due to increased production and stocks, encouraging importers to favor cheaper palm oil and limiting sunflower oil price growth.

Global

Sunflower Oil Output to Surge in 2025/26 on EU and Ukraine Recovery

According to the United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) May agricultural report, global sunflower seed production is forecast to rise by 4 million tons to 56.2 million tons in the 2025/26 season, driven by recovery in the European Union (EU), Ukraine, and Russia. As a result, global sunflower oil production is projected to grow by 9% to 21.9 million tons. This marks one of the strongest increases among major vegetable oils and reflects a broader rebound in processing volumes. The outlook signals improved supply availability for both producing and importing countries, reinforcing sunflower oil’s growing role in global edible oil markets.

Kazakhastan

Kazakhstan Rises as a Key Sunflower Oil Exporter

Kazakhstan has significantly expanded its sunflower oil industry, tripling production and nearly quintupling exports over the past three years. As a result, the country entered the global top 10 exporters in 2024, ranking 8th, and became one of the top three sunflower meal suppliers to the EU. Export revenues from oil, meal, and cake reached USD 562 million last season, with plans to grow this to USD 1 billion through a strategic shift from wheat to oilseeds. Kazakhstan now fully meets domestic demand, stabilizes prices, and increases exports, mainly to Central Asia and China, with future targets including the Middle East.

Russia

Russia’s Sunflower Oil Exports to Singapore Grows Over 11-Fold in Early 2025

Between Jan-25 and Apr-25, Russia exported approximately 11.4 thousand tons of sunflower oil to Singapore. This is an elevenfold increase compared to its previous record in 2020. Until recently, Russian sunflower oil exports to Singapore had remained under 1,000 tons. This surge marks a significant shift in trade, as noted by Russia’s Agroexport Center under the Ministry of Agriculture. Russian agri-food exports to Singapore in all of 2024 amounted to just over 1.3 thousand tons. With growing demand and market potential, Russia is well-positioned to expand its presence in this emerging market.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Sunflower Oil Pricing Top Producers (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Sunflower Oil Pricing Top Producers (W20 2024 to W20 2025) 

Russia

Russia’s sunflower oil prices in W20 were USD 1.12 per kilogram (kg), showing a slight week-on-week (WoW) increase of 0.90% but a month-on-month (MoM) decrease of 0.88%, showing relative stability. Despite this, prices remain 31.76% higher YoY. This strong annual rise is driven by tight sunflower seed supply due to adverse weather and higher input costs. Although export duties were halved in April, a concurrently raised reference price offset much of this relief, limiting price drops. Russia’s expanding exports, including an elevenfold surge to Singapore early in 2025, support steady demand and help maintain elevated prices despite minor short-term fluctuations.

Ukraine

In W20, Ukrainian sunflower oil prices remained stable WoW at USD 1.14/kg, while MoM prices showed a slight decline of USD 0.01 only a 0.87% drop, indicating relative price stability compared to the previous month. The price softness in the short term is mainly due to heightened competition from rising sunflower oil supplies in Argentina and Russia, particularly in key export markets such as India and Europe. Additionally, reduced demand and falling prices for alternative oils like palm and rapeseed have further dampened sunflower oil demand, keeping prices stable. Although favorable weather and good sowing progress suggest a strong upcoming harvest, the anticipated increase in supply may continue to exert downward pressure on prices. The YoY increase of 31.03% in Ukrainian sunflower oil prices reflects more ample supply in the previous year that kept prices lower. 

Argentina

Argentina’s sunflower oil prices held steady WoW at USD 1.10/kg and experienced a modest 0.90% decline MoM, indicating relative short-term stability amid subdued domestic demand. This softness is largely due to abundant supply from a near-record sunflower harvest, with production rising 24.8% YoY thanks to favorable weather conditions, expanded planting areas, and improved yields. The increased availability of sunflower oil is putting downward pressure on prices, especially as processing capacity may limit how much of the surplus can be absorbed domestically. However, prices remain 25.00% higher YoY, driven by broader inflationary pressures, increased input costs, and alignment with rising global commodity prices, which supports a generally higher price level compared to the previous year despite the ample supply.

3. Actionable Recommendations 

Leverage Production Growth and Export Opportunities

With Argentina forecasting a near-record grain and sunflower oil harvest and Kazakhstan rapidly expanding production and exports, producers and exporters should capitalize on these growing volumes to strengthen market presence in both traditional and emerging markets. Expanding export networks, such as Russia’s success in entering Singapore and Kazakhstan’s focus on Central Asia, China, and the Middle East, demonstrate clear potential to diversify market destinations. This shift helps reduce overreliance on Europe and India, where competition is intensifying.

Invest in Processing Capacity and Efficiency

The current surplus in countries like Argentina, combined with some Ukrainian crushers idling due to low processing margins, highlights a need for increased investment in processing technology and efficiency. Upgrading crushing facilities can help absorb larger harvests, improve margin stability, and enable producers to meet growing industrial demand for sunflower oil and byproducts such as meal and cake, enhancing overall value chain profitability.

Explore Value-Added Product Development and Branding

As global edible oil markets grow, branding sunflower oil for quality, sustainability, and health benefits can differentiate products, particularly in high-growth markets such as Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Developing value-added products (e.g., organic or not derived from genetically modified organisms (GMOs) options) and promoting traceability may open new consumer segments and command premium prices.

Sources: Tridge, Agro Times UA, Grain Trade, Milk News, UKR Agro Consult, Rural Net