1. Weekly News

Peru

Peru Forecasts Avocado Export Recovery Despite Weather Uncertainty

Peru anticipates a modest recovery in avocado exports, projecting volumes to reach 630 thousand metric tons (mt) in 2025, a 2% year-on-year (YoY) increase. Avocado exports had dropped due to unseasonably cold weather that disrupted flowering. As one of the world's leading suppliers of Hass avocados, Peru relies heavily on its coastal and highland regions, particularly the desert coast, where advanced irrigation supports productivity. Although expanding cultivation areas support growth, the upcoming threat of the La Niña weather pattern raises concerns about potential impacts on flowering and yields. At the same time, rising local prices driven by higher production costs and shipping delays continue to pressure the industry, which must balance export competitiveness with increasing climate-related risks.

Mexico

Mexico Strengthens Avocado Leadership with Growth and Sustainability Goals

Mexico is expected to maintain its global avocado dominance, with production rising 3% to 2.75 million metric tons (mmt) in 2025. Exports are also projected to increase 5% YoY to 1.34 mmt, largely due to strong United States (US) demand, which accounts for 80% of its export volume. In 2024, Mexico supplied nearly 88% of US avocado imports. Domestic per capita consumption has also been growing at nearly 10% annually, despite high local prices that have made avocados a luxury for some consumers. This growth is driven by rising awareness of health benefits and increasing availability across socioeconomic groups. Mexico is implementing its Path to Sustainability initiative to address environmental concerns, which aims to achieve neutrality in water use, biodiversity, climate impact, and deforestation by 2035. Meanwhile, imports are forecasted to fall 10% YoY to 3.8 thousand metric tons, further reinforcing Mexico’s position as a global leader in the avocado sector.

United States

Avocado Demand in the US Stable Amid Shifting Supply Sources

Avocado demand in the US remains stable following seasonal increases from Cinco de Mayo and Mother’s Day. Strong consumption is expected through July, supported by summer events and growth in the food service industry. The current avocado supply is shared among four key sources: California is at peak production with a large crop of mostly smaller fruit expected to continue into September; Mexico is transitioning from its Negra to Loca summer crop in July; and Peru and Colombia have improving avocado quality that is expected to strengthen in the coming weeks. Although high prices have limited promotional activity in retail, the steady demand combined with increasing volumes from South America may exert downward pressure on prices in the near term.

Zambia

Zambia Taps Into Avocado Market with First Local Supply and Export Ambitions

Zambia has taken a significant step into the avocado market with the Lusaka Avocado Multi-purpose Cooperative Society (LAMCS). LAMCS delivered its first batch of locally grown premium avocados to Shoprite Zambia stores. This achievement is supported by the government’s Comprehensive Agriculture Transformation Support Program. It aims to integrate small-scale farmers into high-value supply chains while enhancing local availability and preparing for export expansion. A new trade agreement with South Africa opens regional market access, and investments in post-harvest infrastructure and cold chain logistics are in progress to support year-round supply. With global avocado demand rising by 10% annually, Zambia’s favorable climate and policy support position it as a promising new entrant in the international avocado trade.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Avocado Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Avocado Pricing Important Exporters (W21 2024 to W21 2025)  

Mexico

Mexico's avocado prices increased by 5.16% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 3.26 per kilogram (kg), with no month-on-month (MoM) change and a 2.84% year-on-year (YoY) increase. This price rise is due to strong export demand, particularly from the US, which accounts for over 80% of Mexico's avocado exports. Additionally, climate-related challenges, such as droughts and temperature fluctuations, have impacted avocado yields, leading to reduced supply and higher production costs. Furthermore, recent US tariffs on Mexican imports have introduced additional costs for exporters, contributing to the upward pressure on prices.

Peru

In W21, Peru's avocado prices dropped slightly by 1.28% WoW to USD 0.77/kg, marking an 11.49% MoM decrease and a 1.28% YoY decline. The price softening is due to an oversupply in key export markets, as export volumes surged. By the end of W19, Peru had reached a new export record of 11.9 thousand shipments, surpassing the previous year's weekly maximum. This sharp increase in supply, particularly in major destinations like Europe and the US, where shipments rose by 30% WoW, has placed downward pressure on prices. Despite the volume surge, the modest YoY price decline suggests a relatively stable market this season, especially compared to the more volatile conditions seen in previous years due to weather-related disruptions.

Spain

In W21, Spain's avocado prices surged by 13.68% WoW to USD 3.74/kg, with a 28.08% MoM and 30.77% YoY increase. This sharp rise is due to a combination of factors: the transition from the Hass to the Lamb Hass variety, which typically yields lower volumes; lingering effects of prolonged droughts that have constrained overall production; and heightened domestic demand driven by health-conscious consumption trends. Additionally, recent rainfall has improved reservoir levels, offering some relief to water-stressed regions, but a full recovery in production is expected to take several years. Meanwhile, increased imports from countries like Morocco have added complexity to the market dynamics, influencing pricing and supply chains.

Chile

Avocado prices in Chile rose slightly by 0.39% WoW to USD 2.55/kg, marking a 3.24% MoM increase. This modest rise is supported by strong local demand, with annual per capita consumption reaching a record 8.6 kg, making Chile the world’s second-largest avocado consumer. The increased availability of avocados in the local market, driven by a shift in supply to meet domestic needs, has fueled this consumption surge. However, prices fell sharply by 34.11% YoY, due to a significant increase in production. Output for the 2024/25 season is expected to reach 200 thousand mt, a 33.3% YoY rise due to favorable weather and improved yields. This production boost is putting downward pressure on prices in export markets, where Chile faces strong competition from Peru and Mexico, both currently experiencing high volumes and expanded market activity.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Strengthen Quality Control and Supply Chain Coordination

Avocado producers in the US, Mexico, Peru, and Colombia should enhance quality control measures and improve coordination across supply chains to maintain steady demand and manage price pressures. For example, growers can implement stricter sorting to reduce smaller or lower-quality fruit reaching the market, while exporters and distributors can improve timing and logistics to ensure fresher fruit availability during peak demand periods. Coordinating shipments to avoid oversupply during crop transitions, like Mexico’s Negra to Loca switch, will help stabilize prices and meet consumer expectations more effectively.

Enhance Climate-Resilient Practices to Secure Avocado Yields

Avocado producers in Peru should adopt climate-resilient farming techniques to mitigate La Niña risks and stabilize yields. This includes expanding drip irrigation systems, adjusting flowering and harvesting schedules, and using weather monitoring tools to anticipate cold spells. For example, growers in coastal desert areas can optimize water use with precision irrigation, while highland farmers might implement frost protection methods like wind machines or row covers. These steps will help maintain export volumes despite adverse weather and rising costs.

Sources: Tridge, Abrafrutas, Freshfruitportal, Freshplaza, Fruitnet, USDA