1. Weekly News

Colombia

Colombia’s New Tax Decree Raises Concerns for Hass Avocado Industry

Effective June 1, 2025, Colombia’s new Decree 0572 is raising concerns across the avocado industry. It increases the self-withholding tax rate for tropical and subtropical fruit cultivation, including Hass avocados, from 0.55% to 1.20%, while reducing the withholding threshold from USD 838.76 (COP 3.48 million). Transactions exceeding this new threshold will face a 1.5% withholding rate. While the income tax rate remains unchanged, these adjustments could significantly impact producers’ cash flow, especially during peak harvests or low-sales periods. As Colombia exports Hass avocados to more than 30 international markets, including the United States (US), the European Union (EU), and Asia, the increased tax burden could pose a risk to rural employment and undermine the financial sustainability of the industry. Although the decree aims to improve tax collection and reduce evasion, it is already facing legal challenges due to its timing and broader implications for agriculture.

Mexico

Mexico Strengthens Global Avocado Dominance While Advancing Sustainability Goals

Mexico remains the global leader in avocado exports, with 2025 exports projected to reach 1.34 million metric tons (mmt), a 5% year-on-year (YoY) increase. The US accounts for 80% of these exports, followed by Canada (7%) and Japan (3%). Local consumption has also grown by nearly 10%, though high prices still limit access for some consumers. In response to environmental concerns, the Avocado Institute of Mexico has launched the Path to Sustainability plan, aiming for water, carbon, and deforestation neutrality by 2035. This plan focuses on improving soil health, protecting biodiversity, and restoring ecosystems. At the same time, Mexico’s avocado imports are expected to decline by 10% to just 3.8 thousand metric tons (mt) in 2025, reflecting the strength of local production.

Nigeria

Nigeria Eyes Global Avocado Market as Global Demand Rises

As global avocado demand approaches a projected USD 23.29 billion by 2029, Nigeria is working to position itself as a competitive exporter alongside Kenya and Morocco, which shipped 135 thousand mt and 56.7 thousand mt, respectively. For now, Nigeria’s avocado production is primarily used locally, limited by the dominance of smallholder farms and the long maturation cycle of traditional varieties. To overcome this, the country is introducing fast-maturing Hass varieties from Mexico and Kenya while promoting large-scale farming across several states. These steps aim to meet increasing demand in Europe and elevate Nigeria’s role in the global avocado trade.

Peru

Peru’s Avocado Export Growth Constrained by Tariffs and Freight Costs

Peru expects avocado exports to increase by 30% YoY this season, signaling a strong recovery. However, exporters are challenged by a 10% US tariff and a 20% rise in ocean freight rates, which together cut the Free On Board (FOB) value by roughly USD 8 thousand per container. These rising costs, which cannot be fully transferred to buyers, are tightening profit margins and reducing Peru’s competitiveness against tariff-free exporters like Mexico and California. Given Peru’s high dependence on global markets, particularly the US, industry leaders are urged to invest in more efficient and cost-effective logistics and supply chain systems to maintain market share.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Avocado Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Avocado Pricing Important Exporters (W22 2024 to W22 2025)  

Mexico

In W22, avocado prices in Mexico increased by 10.12% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 3.59 per kilogram (kg), marking a 23.37% month-on-month (MoM) rise and a 10.80% YoY increase. This price surge is primarily due to reduced supply during Mexico's low harvest season, which typically occurs in May and June, between the end of the main crop and the start of the light crop. During this period, avocado availability is limited. Additionally, sustained high demand, particularly from the US market, has further contributed to upward pressure on prices. The combination of tight supply and strong demand has resulted in significant price increases during this period.

Peru

Avocado prices in Peru dropped by 6.49% WoW to USD 0.72/kg in W22, with a 13.25% MoM decline and a 10% YoY decrease. Contrary to initial assumptions that the end of Peru’s 2024/25 avocado season would reduce supply and support prices, the current price drop appears to be driven by continued availability of residual stocks, logistical challenges such as container shortages, and intensified competition in international markets, particularly from Mexico and Colombia. Additionally, the effects of a 10% tariff increase in key markets and market diversification efforts may have contributed to oversupply in some regions. Despite these pressures, the Peruvian avocado industry remains optimistic, expecting a production rebound and stronger export performance in the upcoming season.

Chile

Chile's avocado prices remained stable WoW at USD 2.55/kg in W22, with a 0.39% MoM increase. However, YoY prices dropped by 37.65%, due to a significant 33.3% increase in production during the 2024/25 season, reaching 200 thousand mt. This supply surge and a 29.8% rise in exports have led to a market adjustment following the exceptionally high prices in the previous year. Despite the increased production, stable local and export demand has not been sufficient to counterbalance the impact of elevated supply levels, resulting in lower prices than the previous year.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Streamline Export Logistics to Offset Rising Costs

Avocado producers should invest in collaborative logistics strategies to reduce per-unit export costs and stay competitive in high-tariff markets. Exporters can partner with other fruit producers to consolidate shipments in shared containers, minimizing freight expenses. They should also negotiate long-term contracts with shipping companies during low-demand seasons to lock in better rates. Additionally, producers in regions like Peru, South Africa, and Colombia can optimize packaging designs to increase container load efficiency and reduce waste, helping preserve profit margins despite rising tariffs and freight costs.

Adopt Scalable Sustainability Practices to Boost Market Access

Avocado producers should implement practical, scalable sustainability measures to meet rising buyer demands and secure long-term export growth. Exporters across Mexico, Kenya, Colombia, and Peru can integrate drip irrigation to reduce water use, apply organic mulching to improve soil health, and adopt agroforestry models to prevent deforestation. These steps align with major retail and importer sustainability requirements in key markets like the US, EU, and Japan. Producers showcasing measurable progress, such as carbon tracking or biodiversity conservation, can gain priority access to high-value contracts and differentiate their products in increasingly eco-conscious markets.

Sources: Tridge, Agronegociosperu, Freshlaza, Fruittoday, Infobae, The Nation