1. Weekly News

Global

Global Beef Market Outlook for H2-2025 Strengthens as US Demand Surges and Brazilian Supply Tightens

Global beef market pricing prospects appear increasingly favorable for the second half of 2025 (H2-2025) and into 2026, driven by sustained demand from the United States (US) and an anticipated reduction in Brazilian supply. Facing its lowest cattle inventory in 74 years, the US continues to drive global demand, benefiting South American exporters such as Paraguay and Brazil. While Brazil’s beef supply contraction has not materialized as expected in 2025, tighter supplies are projected for 2026, supporting stable to rising cattle prices. In the short term, increased supply in Brazil, Paraguay, and Argentina may pressure prices slightly, but higher-quality offerings are expected later in the year. Meanwhile, US beef exports declined 10% year-on-year (YoY) in Apr-25 due to steep tariffs and the expiration of plant registrations in China. However, progress in trade talks and tariff reductions may revive shipments.

Argentina

Stricter EU Rules Threaten Argentina’s Beef Trade Despite Traceability Advances

Argentina's beef sector is facing growing export challenges due to the European Commission’s (EC) decision to classify the country as a “standard risk” nation under the upcoming European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), effective Jan-26. This designation imposes stricter traceability and environmental compliance requirements on key export products like beef, despite Argentina’s efforts to demonstrate minimal deforestation linked to livestock. Backed by the government, the local industry argues that the classification is unjustified, highlighting the Agricultural Export Sustainability Verification (VISEC) traceability system and stable land use in livestock farming.

Meanwhile, Argentina seeks to retain its strategic position in the European Union (EU) market through mechanisms like the Hilton Quota, which grants preferential access for 29.39 thousand metric tons (mt) of premium beef. However, rising domestic production costs and export tariffs are undermining Argentina’s global competitiveness, with beef export volumes declining 25% YoY, while competitors like Brazil and Australia continue to expand. Though domestic beef consumption is showing slight recovery, industry leaders expect 2025 to be a moderate year for exports, calling for structural improvements to restore Argentina’s position in global meat trade.

Argentina’s Beef Industry Faces Deepening Crisis as Slaughter Rates Fall and Exports Decline

Argentina’s cattle slaughter rates fell by 5% YoY, with 1.12 million heads processed in May-25, reflecting broader structural shifts in the sector. While year-to-date (YTD) slaughter remains relatively stable, changes in slaughter composition, rising steer and heifer numbers amid declining cows and bulls, indicate evolving herd dynamics. Despite a record average slaughter weight of 232.3 kilograms (kg), feedlot profitability plummeted 63% in one month due to rising costs, threatening sustainability. Meanwhile, beef exports rose 9% month-on-month (MoM) in May-25 but were still down 6.6% YoY, with total volumes for the year 19.4% lower. While Argentina saw a notable 30% rise in export prices, its trade volumes continued to lag behind regional competitors like Brazil and Paraguay. A sharp 40% drop in Chinese demand, coupled with regulatory uncertainty and fierce competition from Brazil and Australia, has undermined Argentina’s export performance. As a result, the country has started importing beef, mainly from Brazil, for the first time in decades. These scenarios highlight the sector's deepening crisis.

Brazil

Brazil Ramps Up Beef Exports to China and US Amid Livestock Cycle Shift

According to the National Supply Company (Conab), Brazil's beef production is expected to reach 10.52 million metric tons (mmt) in 2025, a slight YoY decline. The drop in production could be attributed to the livestock cycle's reversal and reduced female slaughter. While domestic supply is projected to fall to 6.58 mmt, exports are expected to rise to 4 mmt, driven by strong demand from China and the US. From Jan-25 to Apr-25, exports to the US surged 56% YoY, raising its share to 13%, while China remains the primary destination with a 41% market share. Overall, Brazil slaughtered 9.87 million heads of cattle in Q1-2025, up 4.6%YoY, with female slaughter increasing by 11.3% YoY due to demand for premium beef. In May-25 alone, beef exports totaled 250.8 thousand mt, up 4.3% YoY, contributing to a Jan-25–May-25 cumulative total of 1.2 mmt (+11.4% YoY). Export revenues soared 19% YoY to USD 1.134 billion, with average export prices hitting USD 5,200/mt, the highest since 2022. This highlights Brazil’s continued strength in meeting global beef demand.

Silvopastoral Systems Offset Methane While Boosting Brazilian Beef Productivity

A study by Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (Embrapa) in São Paulo demonstrated that silvopastoral systems (SSPs), which integrate beef cattle grazing with eucalyptus trees, can effectively neutralize enteric methane emissions while enhancing productivity. By analyzing carbon fixed in tree trunks used for high-value products, researchers found that such systems offset emissions equivalent to 2.3 adult cattle per hectare (ha), despite supporting a higher stocking rate of 3.01 cattle/ha, more than triple Brazil's national average. The system also improved animal welfare through increased thermal comfort due to shade. These findings highlight SSPs as a climate-smart strategy, capable of both mitigating and adapting to climate change, and supporting Brazil’s emissions reduction goals and sustainable beef production.

Mexico

Mexico–US Border Closure Hits Beef Exports Due to Screwworm Outbreak

Mexican beef exports to the US declined by 7% YoY through W22 of 2025, totaling 89.1 thousand mt. This drop can be primarily due to rising cattle prices and the ongoing border closure caused by a screwworm infestation. Weekly exports from June 2 to June 8 dropped by 3%, while US fresh beef imports also fell 8% from the previous week. The closure has resulted in the daily loss of about 5,700 heads of cattle and commercial losses exceeding USD 11 million. However, optimism is rising as screwworm cases have declined by 75%, and technical inspections are underway to certify control measures and enable border reopening. While US cattle prices remain high, beef cut prices are starting to ease, suggesting a potential seasonal peak and tightening packer margins. In Mexico, domestic meat prices remain stable amid steady demand, although beef, pork, and chicken price increases have slightly contributed to inflation. Authorities are working closely with industry stakeholders to restore exports and stabilize domestic meat prices.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Beef Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Beef Pricing Important Exporters (W24 2024 to W24 2025) 

Brazil

In W24, Brazil’s wholesale price for boneless rear beef increased by 2.18% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 4.68/kg, reflecting a 0.65% YoY rise but a 0.21% MoM decline. This WoW increase is largely attributed to exchange rate fluctuations, as the domestic price remained stable at BRL 26.0/kg, unchanged from W23. According to Safras and Mercado, the wholesale market experienced upward price momentum during the week, supported by the injection of salaries into the economy, which encouraged restocking activity between wholesale and retail channels. However, the firm cautioned that declining prices in wholesale chicken meat could still trickle down to retail, potentially weakening beef demand. Analysts emphasized that strong export demand and a limited supply of young cattle, particularly for the Chinese market, continued to support beef prices. National slaughter schedules remain steady, averaging five to seven business days, with some regions seeing arroba prices negotiated above the standard reference. It was also noted that beef exports remain the primary market driver, with Brazil making significant progress toward achieving record export volumes this year.

Australia

In W24, Australia’s National Young Cattle Indicator (NYCI) averaged USD 2.49/kg, reflecting a 1.19% WoW decline, but marking increases of 8.26% MoM and 18.57% YoY. According to Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA), the overall cattle market remained stable despite the dip in NYCI. Yardings fell by 24% to 56.8 thousand heads, as rainfall and the long weekend disrupted some sales. Among the categories, heavy steers were the strongest performers, with robust demand in Victoria pushing state-level prices higher. Meanwhile, most other indicators saw slight WoW declines, and restocker heifers failed to sustain the strong prices recorded in the previous week.

United States

In W24, US lean beef (92% to 94% lean) averaged USD 8.82/kg, marking increases of 0.68% WoW, 1.38% MoM, and 7.56% YoY. The price rise is largely attributed to strong seasonal demand driven by summer grilling and outdoor gatherings, compounded by tightening domestic supply. As of January 1, 2025, the US cattle herd had declined to 86.7 million head, with beef cow numbers hitting a 74-year low of 28 million. Further supply pressures are anticipated following the suspension of live cattle imports from Mexico due to a screwworm outbreak, a development that could push prices even higher during peak summer demand.

Argentina

In W24, Argentina’s average steer beef price declined by 0.42% WoW to USD 2.37/kg, down 1.66% MoM. The decline is likely tied to sluggish demand. Nevertheless, prices remained 17.91% higher YoY, indicating a potential rebound in demand following the economic challenges of 2024. However, Argentina’s beef sector remains highly volatile. In May-25, cattle slaughter dropped 5% YoY to 1.12 million heads, reflecting broader structural changes. Despite a record average slaughter weight of 232.3 kg, feedlot profitability plunged by 63% in just one month due to rising costs, raising concerns over long-term sustainability. In a striking development, Argentina began importing beef, mainly from Brazil, for the first time in decades, underscoring the deepening crisis in the sector.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Leverage Rising US Demand to Diversify Export Markets

With the US cattle inventory at a 74-year low and beef demand projected to remain strong through 2026, South American exporters, especially Paraguay, Uruguay, and Brazil, should proactively expand their market share in the US. Exporters should invest in bilateral relationships, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) plant certifications, and logistical optimization to ensure consistent delivery of high-quality beef products. Additionally, exporters can use this demand window to redirect volumes previously destined for China, which is currently hindered by tariffs and expired plant registrations, strengthening market resilience through US diversification.

Strengthen Argentina’s EU Market Access Through Compliance and Market Diversification

Facing the “standard risk” classification under the upcoming EUDR, Argentina should accelerate national compliance with deforestation-free certification, scaling the VISEC traceability system and enhancing transparency across the value chain. Concurrently, exporters should reduce dependence on the EU Hilton Quota by targeting high-growth Asian markets and expanding regional trade under Mercosur frameworks. Government and private sector collaboration will be critical to maintain competitiveness amid high production costs and declining profitability.

Heighten Cross-Border Biosecurity to Restore and Future-Proof Mexico–US Beef Trade

To mitigate the effects of the screwworm outbreak and prevent future disruptions, Mexico should institutionalize enhanced border biosecurity protocols, including early warning systems, digital traceability of cattle movements, and contingency trade plans. Swift certification of disease control and communication with US authorities will help reopen the border and resume trade. In parallel, stakeholders should explore temporary diversification of export destinations and promote domestic beef through public-private campaigns to absorb short-term supply surpluses.

Scale Up Silvopastoral Systems to Boost Productivity and Meet Sustainability Targets

Brazil’s success with SSPs offers a blueprint for climate-smart beef production. Policymakers and private producers should collaborate to expand SSPs nationwide, leveraging carbon offset markets and green finance. Technical training, equipment subsidies, and certification incentives can accelerate adoption, helping Brazil meet emissions targets while enhancing productivity and animal welfare. This will also serve as a sustainability selling point for beef exports to environmentally conscious markets such as the EU.

Sources: Tridge, Agromeat, Canal Rural, Foodmate