W24: Orange Update

In W24 in the orange landscape, it was reported that the Florida orange production is expected to increase by 1%, while Non-Valencia orange production will remain unchanged and grapefruit production will increase by 1%. Tangerine and tangelo production is expected to decrease by 2%. The 2022/23 Florida all-orange forecast includes 6.1 million non-Valencia orange boxes and 9.6 million Valencia orange boxes, with 240 thousand Navel orange boxes, 4% of the non-Valencia orange total. In Brazil, the demand for oranges in the table market is low, but there is an increasing demand from industries. Despite this, pear orange prices have remained stable in the fresh market. The California Valencia orange crop has decreased in both districts, but the oranges have grown in size due to December's rainfall. Fillmore-Piru Citrus is experiencing a larger size structure at the beginning of the season, but smaller oranges may become less available as the season progresses. Harvesting started in the Central Valley and typically shifts to the Ventura, San Diego, and Riverside County regions in early August. While demand remains steady, there is still a shortage of larger-sized navel oranges in the US market. The USDA recently released its harvest bulletin for the 2022/23 season, revealing an increase of less than 1% in total orange production compared to 2022. However, this year's forecast marks a 25% drop from 2021/22 end-use, with total production estimated at 2.5 million tons, a shadow over the production seen in the previous season.

In May 2023, the weighted average orange prices in the EU were USD116.04/100kg (EUR 106/100kg). This price was USD 28.46 (EUR 26) higher than the 5-year average and USD 32.84 (EUR 30) higher than the price in 2022. The EU imported a total of 102,544 tonnes of oranges for the 2022/23 season, primarily from Egypt, South Africa, Morocco, and other countries. In Spain, citrus production of Almeria will decrease by 7.6% this season. Almeria contributes to 10% of the total citrus production in the province of Andalusia, with sweet orange accounting for 54% of the citrus produced in Almeria. Prices of oranges, mandarins, and lemons have remained stable since the 2021/22 campaign.

Lastly, South Africa's citrus industry is recovering well following a challenging crop season in 2022 due to a successful harvest and strong demand from the EU and UK markets. The export of Navel oranges from South Africa has doubled in 2023. In contrast, Spanish orange prices have risen by 60% YoY and stood at USD 1.31/kg. This increase is beneficial for South African growers as it helps offset their high production costs. South African oranges stood at USD 0.20/kg, making them an attractive option for European buyers.