W26: Chicken Update

In W26 in the chicken landscape, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) forecasts 2023 global production of edible poultry (including chicken, turkey, duck, and geese) to amount to 142.6 million metric tonnes (mmt), an increase of approximately 1.35% YoY. China is expected to be the world's largest producer, followed by the United States (US) and Brazil, representing 11% of the projected global production. While China and the US show modest growth rates, Brazil's expansion is estimated to be the highest among the top ten producers at 2.74%. Only Japan indicates a negative result, but overall, 60% of these top ten countries are losing share in global production, while Brazil shows the most significant increase of 1.37% YoY. Africa, Asia, and Europe also experience a decrease in their share of global production, with the European Union (EU) accounting for approximately 60% of the continent's production. The remaining 40% comes from non-member countries in Europe, such as Russia, Ukraine, and the United Kingdom (UK). In Jun-23, Brazil is set to exceed 2022's record of nearly 398 thousand mt of chicken meat exported in Jun-22, marking the fourth consecutive month of 2023 surpassing 400 thousand mt. As of W4 of Jun-23, the average daily volume shipped was over 18.88 thousand mt, totaling 344.2 thousand mt exported in the month so far. With only 53.55 thousand mt remaining, a daily average of 10.71 thousand mt, it is highly likely that a record 435 thousand mt is expected to be reached, surpassing both 2022's June record and May's volume of just over 400 thousand mt. Additionally, the average price of the product has continued to appreciate, with the current value of USD1,997.85/mt, the highest level in 2023 and an increase of 2.25% MoM, despite still being 9.29% lower than Jun-22.

On June 27, the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (MAPA) confirmed the first case of avian flu in a domestic bird on a subsistence farm in Serra, Espírito Santo, Brazil. This is the first outbreak detected in domestic poultry in subsistence farming, while previous cases were found in wild birds. However, the occurrence of this outbreak does not impose restrictions on the international trade of Brazilian poultry products, and the consumption and export of poultry products remain safe. The ministry advises the public not to handle sick or dead birds and to contact the nearest veterinary service. It is worth noting that the registration of this outbreak does not impact the country's status as being free of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), and there is no risk in consuming poultry meat and eggs as the disease is not transmitted through consumption. In W26, Japan suspended poultry purchases from the Brazilian state of Espirito Santo following an outbreak of HPAI on a non-commercial farm. The decision came after the state declared bird flu cases among domestic animals, including ducks, mallards, geese, and chickens. The Brazilian Association of Animal Proteins (ABPA) disputed Japan's suspension, stating that it does not align with guidelines from the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH). The Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture noted that the outbreak did not change Brazil's status with the WOAH and that the ban was not agreed upon in the health protocol between the two countries. Brazil, the world's largest chicken exporter, has recorded several outbreaks of the disease among wild birds but stated that industrial poultry farming in the country remains unaffected. Japan was the third-largest importer of chicken meat from Brazil in 2022.

Lately, the price of chicken meat in Indonesia has been steadily increasing, approaching the highest level recorded in May-22 at USD 2.55/kg. As of Jun-23, the average price stood at USD 2.5/kg. On June 27th, the price rose by USD 0.020 to USD 2.56/kg. The highest price reached USD 3.34/kg in North Kalimantan, while the lowest was USD 2.00/kg in South Sulawesi. In the Jakarta area, the price per head of chicken meat was USD 2.80, an increase of USD 0.060 compared to June 26th. These figures represent the daily average price at the retail and consumer levels. Pardjuni, the Chairperson of the National Association of Chicken Breeders Association, notes that the increase in chicken meat prices has been ongoing since the previous Eid, driven by market manipulation by brokers and retailers. Despite fluctuations, the price at the farmer level remains within normal limits.