W27: Maize (Corn) Update

In W27 in the maize (corn) landscape, the European Union (EU) maize crop is expected to rebound from 2022's poor harvest. However, lower sowings and dry spring weather have impacted the 2023 prospects. The severe drought experienced in 2022 discouraged many farmers from planting maize in 2023, resulting in a projected five-year low in the planting area. Strategie Grains lowered the French maize crop estimate to 61.2 million metric tons (mmt) and may further reduce it due to the dry weather forecasts. The risk of continued dryness throughout Jul-23 threatens to further diminish yields, with the potential for the crop to drop below 60 mmt. Romania could become the largest maize producer in the EU, overtaking France, depending on final yields. Germany's corn crop suffered damage despite recent rain, and further precipitation is needed for proper growth. Germany's maize crop is expected to decline by 20% to 3.58 mmt. In Poland, recent rains have benefited maize crops, but weather conditions in Jul-23 are expected to be crucial. The maize crop in Poland is forecasted to be 7.1 mmt, down 8% from the record crop harvest in 2022.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) reports that 2022/23 United States (US) corn sales reached 251.7 thousand mt in the week ending June 29, up 79% compared to the previous week and 62% compared to the four-week average. US corn sales were mainly destined for Mexico (148.9 thousand mt), Japan (131.2 thousand mt), Guatemala (35.7 thousand mt), Taiwan (12.6 thousand mt), and Dominican Republic (9.6 thousand mt), offsetting cancellations. For the 2023/24 corn crop, US sales totaled 418 thousand mt, mainly destined for Japan (172.6 thousand mt), Mexico (104.1 thousand mt), undisclosed destinations (69.1 thousand mt), Canada (32.8 thousand mt), and Honduras (16.8 thousand mt). The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (Sader) projects Mexican white and yellow corn production in 2023 to reach 28.51 mmt, a rise of over 2 mmt YoY. The increase is attributed to the government's free fertilizer program for small farmers.

The National Supply Company (CONAB) reports that the summer corn crop in Brazil reached an advanced development stage in W27, with harvesting reaching 94.8%, up compared to 93.8% in W26 but down compared to 95.1% in the same period in 2022. Notable progress was made in Goiás, Minas Gerais, São Paulo, Paraná, and Santa Catarina (100%), Rio Grande do Sul (99%), Piauí (91%), Bahia (90%), and Maranhão (64%). As for the second Brazilian corn crop, harvesting increased from 11% in W26 to 20% in W27 but was behind the 28% registered in the same period in 2022. The most significant advancements were registered in Mato Grosso (35.9%), Tocantins (30%), Maranhão (22%), Minas Gerais (9%), Goiás and Piauí (7%), Paraná (3%), and Mato Grosso do Sul South (2%). The remaining corn crops are at different stages, with 57.3% in maturation, 21.8% in grain filling, and 1.2% in flowering. Lastly, CONAB also reports that the Brazilian government plans to purchase corn amounting to 500 thousand mt to replenish state food stocks, aiming to restore government reserves.