1. Weekly Price Overview

EU and US Beef Markets Face Supply Strains as South America Sees Seasonal Gains

In W44, European Union (EU) beef prices averaged USD 8.21 per kilogram (kg), marking a slight 0.24% week-on-week (WoW) drop and a 0.09% month-on-month (MoM) decline, but a significant 41.49% year-on-year (YoY) increase. While prices fell marginally in USD terms, they rose 0.03% WoW in local currency to EUR 708.3/100kg, reflecting currency effects. The strong YoY increase indicates elevated prices in the EU, driven by stable domestic demand and persistent supply constraints linked to structural challenges in production.

In Brazil, beef prices rose 1.96% WoW to USD 3.93/kg, representing a 3.06% MoM increase and an 8.91% YoY gain. The WoW rise is largely attributed to increased domestic consumption ahead of the festive season, as holiday-related demand typically boosts beef consumption in the last two months of the year. Similarly, Argentine beef prices climbed 14.92% WoW to USD 2.46/kg, a 12.80% MoM increase and a 22.57% YoY gain. The uptick reflects rising domestic demand ahead of holidays and festivals. Meanwhile, US live cattle futures increased 1.22% WoW to USD 5.22/kg, marking a 2.42% MoM rise and a 27.25% YoY gain. The increase is supported by tightening cattle supply and strong domestic prices, underpinning bullish market sentiment.

2. Price Analysis

Global Beef Prices Rise Driven by Strong Demand from Australia and Brazil

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the global meat price index averaged 125.0 points in Oct-25, marking a 1.196% MoM decline, driven by falling prices for poultry, pork, and lamb. In contrast, the beef price index rose 0.61% MoM to 146.18 points, supported by higher Australian quotations amid firm global demand.

According to the Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA), Australian beef exports reached 139.28 thousand metric tons (mt), a 7% YoY increase. This growth is attributed to strong international demand, particularly from the US market, where Australian beef commands premium prices.

In Brazil, beef exports reached 357 thousand mt, valued at USD 1.9 billion in Oct-25, representing a 1.5% MoM rise in volume and an 18.7% MoM increase in value. The strong performance reflects robust global demand, supply constraints, and continued market expansion, including exports to the US despite a 50% tariff. While shipments slowed to the US since Aug-25 due to the additional tariff, trade flows have not been fully interrupted.

China remains Brazil’s largest destination, receiving 190.8 thousand mt, worth USD 1.05 billion. However, short-term demand may be affected by concerns over Fluazuron levels exceeding permitted limits in some Brazilian beef batches. Additional uncertainty arises from a safeguard investigation launched by China in Dec-24, with a final decision expected by the end of Nov-25. This measure could impose new restrictions or tariffs affecting major suppliers, including Argentina, Brazil, the US, Uruguay, Australia, and New Zealand.

3. Strategic Recommendations

Maximize Opportunities and Managing Risks in the Global Beef Market with Elevated Prices and Strong Demand

In the EU, the elevated prices, stable domestic demand, and structural supply constraints suggests that buyers and processors should secure long-term contracts with reliable suppliers to ensure consistent access while mitigating exposure to short-term price fluctuations. Exporters and producers can also focus on value-added products or premium cuts to capitalize on high local prices and strong domestic demand.

In South America, rising domestic consumption ahead of the festive season in Brazil and Argentina presents opportunities for processors to align production schedules with peak demand periods and implement targeted marketing campaigns to boost sales. Exporters should diversify international markets beyond traditional buyers, particularly given China’s emerging safety concerns and safeguard investigations, while maintaining compliance with import regulations to avoid disruptions.

For Australia and the US, where strong global demand and tight cattle supply are driving price growth, suppliers should leverage favorable pricing by expanding export volumes strategically, especially to premium markets such as the US. At the same time, companies should monitor global competition and tariffs closely to adjust supply allocations and pricing strategies in response to regulatory changes.