1. Weekly News

Russia

Russia Suspends Sunflower Oil and Meal Export Duties to Boost Trade Ahead of Harvest Season

Russia has temporarily lifted its floating export duties on sunflower oil and meal until August 31, 2025, to stimulate exports and support domestic producers ahead of the autumn harvest. While the government assures that domestic supply remains sufficient, experts caution that the move could tighten local stocks and increase prices if the upcoming harvest underperforms or foreign demand surges. Duties, previously set at approximately USD 89.7 per metric ton (mt) for oil and USD 15.7/mt for meal in Jun-25, were reduced to zero, potentially accelerating export flows. This follows a similar policy shift on wheat, aimed at strengthening competitiveness amid global price declines and disrupted trade channels.

Russia's Sunflower Oil Exports Down 38% in H1-2025 Due to Supply Limits and Global Price Pressures

Russia exported 1.7 million metric tons (mmt) of sunflower oil to the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) in H1-2025, marking a 38% decline compared to the same period last year. This is according to Ruseed, a Russian analytical center specializing in the oilseed market, citing the Federal Customs Service (FTS Rossii). Exports to non-Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries fell by 45%, while shipments to CIS countries rose by 31%. Turkey and India were the largest buyers, importing 546,000 and 505,000 mt, respectively. The export decline is attributed to limited supply and high global prices, prompting importers to shift toward cheaper oils such as palm and soybean. Despite a 9% increase in sunflower crop area and favorable weather, drought conditions have negatively impacted yields. Industry experts expect export volumes to recover by Sep-25 as prices stabilize.

Ukraine

Ukraine's Sunflower Seed Processing Limited to 63.1% in 2024/25 Due to Supply Challenges

In the 2024/25 marketing year (MY), nearly all sunflower seed in Ukraine is allocated for processing, yet processing capacity utilization is projected to remain limited at 63.1%, according to the Ukrainian Oil and Fat Industry Association (Ukroliyaprom). The shortfall is attributed to unstable and uneven sunflower seed supply from farmers, preventing processors from building adequate stocks. While increased utilization could be achieved through rapeseed or soybeans, both crops are prioritized for export. Notably, up to 67% of monthly sunflower seed stocks remain on farms, highlighting persistent supply chain inefficiencies.

Ukraine's Sunflower Oil Exports Reach USD 2.77 Billion in H1-2025

From Jan-25 to Jun-25, Ukraine exported 2.407 mmt of sunflower oil valued at USD 2.77 billion, according to the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Agrarian and Land Policy, citing the State Customs Service. The top buyers of Ukrainian sunflower oil were Spain, which spent USD 356.9 million (12.88%), Italy with USD 337.5 million (12.18%), and India with USD 326.1 million (11.77%).

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Sunflower Oil Pricing Top Producers (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Sunflower Oil Pricing Top Producers (W30 2024 to W30 2025) 

Russia

Russia's sunflower oil prices rose by 0.44% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 1.14 per kilogram (kg) in W30, marking a significant 24.04% year-on-year (YoY) increase. The upward trend reflects tightening domestic availability and strong export prospects following the government's suspension of floating export duties on sunflower oil and meal until August 31, 2025. This policy aims to boost international competitiveness and support producers ahead of the autumn harvest. However, the removal of duties, previously USD 89.7/mt, could accelerate outflows, tightening domestic supply if harvest volumes fall short or foreign demand intensifies. As a result, further upward price pressure may emerge in the short term, especially if global markets remain volatile.

Ukraine

In W30, Ukraine's sunflower oil prices rose by 2.18% WoW to USD 1.17/kg, reflecting a 25.81% YoY increase from USD 0.93/kg in W30 2024. This sustained upward trend is underpinned by strong export performance, with 2.407 mmt shipped in H1-2025, generating USD 2.77 billion in revenue. Strong demand from major buyers continues to support elevated price levels.

The surge in sunflower oil exports contrasts with sharp declines in rapeseed oil volumes and revenue, suggesting a strategic shift in export focus. Meanwhile, the 52% rise in soybean oil exports further highlights Ukraine's growing role in global vegetable oil markets. If current export momentum persists and the upcoming harvest faces logistical or weather-related disruptions, sunflower oil prices could remain firm or rise further in the near term, supported by strong international demand and limited alternative oil availability in Europe.

Argentina

Argentina's sunflower oil prices rose by 0.70% WoW to USD 1.12/kg in W30, up 18.19% YoY. This modest weekly increase reflects firm global demand and supportive international price trends, although the recent downward correction in global sunflower oil markets suggests potential headwinds.

Domestically, strong planting intentions, projected to reach 2.6 million hectares (ha), a rise of 18.2% from the previous cycle, signal a strong future supply. Favorable rainfall in Northeast Argentina and central regions supports this outlook, though regional variability and climate uncertainty, particularly in southern provinces such as Buenos Aires and La Pampa, temper optimism. Although global supply is expected to recover, favorable input-output ratios and profitability still support sunflower production. International prices remain above average, sustaining Argentina's export outlook. However, faster stock recovery or increased domestic output could pressure prices downward.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Enhance Supply Chain Stability and Processing Utilization

Ukrainian industry stakeholders should prioritize measures to improve sunflower seed supply consistency and reduce farm-held stocks. Investments in logistics and coordination with farmers can increase processing capacity utilization beyond the current 63%, enabling better conversion of seed into exportable oil and supporting stable export volumes.

Monitor and Strategically Respond to Export Duty Changes

Exporters and importers should closely track Russia's suspension of export duties on sunflower oil and meal through Aug-25. Given the potential for accelerated export flows and tighter domestic supply, market participants should adopt flexible sourcing strategies and hedge against short-term price volatility to mitigate risks associated with policy-driven supply fluctuations.

Support Climate-Resilient Production and Planting Expansion

Producers and industry groups in Argentina should capitalize on strong planting intentions and favorable input-output economics by promoting drought-resilient seed varieties and regional diversification. This approach can help offset climate variability risks and sustain exportable supply amid evolving global demand and price conditions.

Sources: Tridge, Ukr AgroConsult, Agro Investor, Info Campo, APK Inform