In W36 in the pork landscape, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects Brazil’s pork production to reach 4.65 million metric tons (mmt) in 2023, a 7% year-on-year (YoY) increase. The USDA also expects Brazilian pork production to reach 4.87 mmt in 2024, a significant 5% uptick compared to the 2023 estimate. This production surge is attributed to the rising global demand for Brazilian pork, the opening of new markets, improved domestic economic conditions, and record corn and soybean harvests. This is expected to result in increased input availability, reduced food prices, and significant production growth.
Additionally, the USDA expects Brazilian pork exports to total 1.43 mmt in 2023, an increase of 42% YoY. 2024 Brazilian pork shipments are anticipated to amount to 1.53 mmt, a growth of 7% compared to the 2023 forecast, underlining Brazil's expanding role in the global pork industry.
The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) reveals that pig slaughter reached a record 5.9 million heads in Paraná, Brazil, in H1-2023. This represents a 2.3% increase compared to H2-2022 and the highest slaughter on record since 1997. Paraná maintains its position as the second-largest national pork producer, closely trailing Santa Catarina, which recorded 8.4 million heads. Although Santa Catarina still holds the lead, the gap between the two states narrows. Santa Catarina accounted for 29.9% of Brazil’s pork production in Q1-23, with Paraná contributing 20.5%. However, Santa Catarina's share dropped to 29.7% in Q2-23, while Paraná's increased to 21.4%. This shift is due to Paraná reaching a significant milestone of 3 million pigs slaughtered in Q2-23. Notably, Paraná's pork production volume outpaced the national average.
The National Animal Quality and Health Service (Senacsa) reports that Paraguay’s pork exports continued with an upward trend from Jan-23 to Aug-23. Paraguay’s pork shipments reached 4.29 thousand metric tons (mt), valued at USD 10.8 million in the first eight months of 2023, a remarkable 124% increase in volume and a significant 200% surge in value compared to the same period in 2022. Paraguayan pork shipments were primarily destined for Taiwan, accounting for 52% (2.25 thousand mt), Uruguay with 30% (1.3 thousand mt), and Georgia with 14% (616 mt). The exponential growth in pork exports, especially to Taiwan, reflects a 575% increase compared to 2022, a significant milestone for the Paraguayan pork industry. Moreover, the Bolivian market opening in the coming months could provide another promising avenue for the sector.
Lastly, the ARiMR's IRZ system reveals that Poland's pig population surged to 9.83 million heads as of August 31, a substantial 7% month-on-month (MoM) increase. This positive shift indicates a temporary pause in the pig herd liquidation trend that had persisted for years, partly attributed to the relatively favorable economic conditions. The pig herd numbers in Poland registered a modest rise of 39 farms in Jul-23, totaling 52.84 thousand herds. These figures also underline a growing production concentration trajectory, with the pig herd averaging 186 animals per farm at the end of Aug-23, a 7% MoM increase in herd size.