1. Weekly News

European Union

New Trade Deal to Boost Beef Market Access Between Mercosur and Europe

The newly signed free trade agreement between Mercosur and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) is set to significantly expand opportunities for beef exports once ratified. Covering nearly 300 million consumers and a combined gross domestic product (GDP) of USD 4.3 trillion, the deal grants Mercosur countries, Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay, greater access to European markets, with EFTA pledging immediate tariff preferences, quotas, or full liberalization on key agricultural products, including beef. This is expected to boost bilateral trade, as beef joins poultry, pork, and other commodities in gaining preferential entry, enhancing the competitiveness of Mercosur’s livestock sector. While implementation awaits parliamentary approvals, the agreement represents a major step toward strengthening trade ties and expanding market opportunities for South American beef producers in high-value European markets.

Argentina

Argentina’s Beef Sector Balances Export Recovery and Herd Pressures

Argentina’s beef sector in Aug-25 reflected both recovery and structural challenges, with exports reaching 85 thousand metric tons (mt), the highest monthly volume of the year, supported by stronger global demand, peso devaluation, and lower export duties. Led by China absorbing half of shipments and Europe paying premium prices within the Hilton quota, this surge helped narrow the export gap from earlier in the year, when shipments had dropped sharply. Despite higher export revenues, production dynamics revealed pressure on the herd, as slaughter in Aug-25 fell due to adverse weather and poor road conditions, with both male and female cattle slaughter declining, raising concerns about future stock replenishment. Over the first eight months of 2025, national beef production edged up 1% year-on-year (YoY) to 2.08 million metric tons (mmt), while exports were still down nearly 15% YoY, mainly from weaker Chinese demand earlier in the year. This imbalance between modest production gains and softer external sales boosted domestic consumption by 7.7% to nearly 50 kilograms (kg) per capita annually, while beef prices rose only marginally, contributing to Argentina’s broader disinflationary trend.

Brazil

Brazil’s Beef Production Expected to Decline in 2026, but Exports Remain Strong

According to the National Supply Company (Conab), Brazil’s meat production is expected to reach a record 32.3 mmt in 2026, a 0.75% YoY rise, driven by increases in poultry and pork. However, beef output is projected to fall by 3.6% YoY to 10.6 mmt in 2026, the lowest since 2023, following record production in 2024 of 11 mmt. The decline stems from higher prices that led farmers to slaughter more females, reducing calf replacement and tightening future supply. While chicken and pork production will offset the dip, beef exports are still expected to rise 2.4% YoY to 4.1 mmt in 2026, supported by robust demand from China, which absorbs over half of Brazil’s meat shipments. Despite the United States (US) elevated tariffs, Brazil’s largest companies maintain strong market access through local operations.

China

China’s Beef Imports Expected to Rebound in 2026 as Production Declines

According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts, China’s beef production is set to decline from 7.8 mmt in 2025 to 7.56 mmt in 2026. This pessimistic projection is attributed to slaughter rates falling and consumption weakening due to slower economic growth and a consumer shift toward cheaper proteins like pork and poultry. Domestic demand is projected to drop nearly 5% YoY to just under 11 mmt, while imports, though dipping in 2025, are expected to recover slightly to 3.5 mmt in 2026, keeping China the world’s largest beef importer.

South Korea

Korean Beef Prices Hit Yearly Highs Ahead of Chuseok Holiday

Ahead of the Chuseok holiday, Korean beef prices have surged to their highest levels of the year, surpassing USD 14.29/kg (KRW 20,000/kg) in early Sep-25 and stabilizing around USD 16.43/kg (KRW 23,000/kg) for premium cuts. Prices, which had remained subdued in the first half of the year, began rising in Aug-25, supported by government-issued consumer coupons and holiday demand. Despite overall sluggish consumption earlier in the year, discounts at major retailers eased backlogs and boosted sales momentum. During the peak season, beef prices are forecast to rise by around 7% to 10% YoY, though still slightly below the long-term average, with slaughter volumes expected to dip by 1.8% YoY from last year but remain above typical levels. Strong gift-set demand and extended holiday celebrations are expected to sustain the upward trend, with additional consumer coupon distribution likely to keep prices elevated even after Chuseok.

Uruguay

Uruguay’s Live Cattle Exports Near Record Levels in 2025, Driven by Robust Demand

Uruguay’s live cattle exports have so far surged in 2025, with shipments reaching 45,000 heads in Aug-25, valued at USD 48.7 million. This pushed the year’s total to USD 289.3 million, nearly matching the 2024 record of USD 299 million with months remaining. Projections indicate exports could surpass 265,000 heads by year-end, with Turkey and Middle Eastern markets driving strong demand for calves, heifers, and pregnant heifers of key breeds such as Angus, Hereford, and Holstein. Export prices have strengthened, averaging USD 3.12/kg in 2025, up from previous years, supported by higher animal weights. Meanwhile, beef exports also saw gains, with average prices rising 20% YoY to USD 4,930/mt, reflecting robust international demand.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Beef Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Beef Pricing Important Exporters (W38 2024 to W38 2025)

Brazil

In W38, Brazil’s wholesale beef price climbed 8.35% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 5.06/kg, reflecting a 10.0% month-on-month (MoM) and a 20.76% YoY increase. The weekly gain was driven by stable demand, though market experts caution that further upward revisions may be limited, as the latter half of the month typically brings weaker adjustment momentum. On the domestic front, inflationary pressures have eased, allowing consumer beef demand to recover slightly and support wholesale values. However, chicken remains a cheaper alternative, maintaining a competitive edge in household protein choices. At the same time, strong export demand, particularly from China, Brazil’s largest buyer, continues to absorb significant volumes, amplifying upward pressure and reinforcing Brazil’s position as a dominant global supplier.

Australia

In W38, Australia’s beef prices rose 0.32% WoW to USD 3.13/kg, marking a 1.95% MoM rise and a 27.76% YoY increase. According to Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA), the cattle market remained firm, with prices lifting across most indicators despite total yardings easing by 5.33 thousand heads to 68.61 thousand heads. While yardings increased slightly in New South Wales (NSW) by 654 heads, they declined sharply in Queensland by 8.42 thousand heads. Strong demand for heavy cows drove prices higher nationwide, with the processor cow indicator reaching a new record high, surpassing the previous 2022 peak. At Wagga Wagga, leaner cows under 520kg also recorded notable price gains. Meanwhile, the feeder steer indicator softened as interest in secondary cattle dominated sales, though lot feeders continued to shape market dynamics, supporting prices in NSW and Queensland.

United States

In W38, US lean beef (92% to 94%) prices held steady at USD 9.82/kg, unchanged WoW but up 0.61% MoM and 13.92% YoY. The elevated price is attributed to tight cattle inventories and firm domestic demand. As of July 1, the US cattle herd stood at 94.2 million heads, including 28.7 million beef cows, a modest recovery yet still slightly below 2023 levels, underscoring supply constraints. Feedlot data reinforced this picture as inventories in Aug-25 marked an eighth consecutive monthly decline to 10.92 million heads, the lowest since Oct-17. Over the past six months, placements dropped more than 6% YoY, while marketings fell over 5% YoY, both translating into reduced fed cattle slaughter and tighter beef output. External factors have compounded the situation. The 50% tariff on Brazilian beef has curbed import flows, while border disruptions with Mexico tied to New World screwworm controls have further limited supply channels. On the demand side, retail resistance is beginning to surface, as persistently high beef prices weigh on household budgets and slow consumption growth.

Argentina

In W38, Argentina’s average steer beef price declined 2.34% WoW and 9.52% MoM to USD 2.09/kg, pointing to softer short-term demand. Nonetheless, prices stood 6.09% higher YoY, highlighting the resilience of structural demand. Domestic consumption is showing clear signs of recovery. According to the Chamber of Meat and Meat Products Industry and Commerce of the Argentine Republic (CICCRA), per capita beef consumption reached 49.8 kg in Aug-25, up 4.2% YoY, supported by a rebound in household purchasing power after the 2024 downturn. Between Jan-25 and Aug-25, apparent beef consumption rose 7.7% YoY to 1.56 mmt, underscoring stronger retail uptake. Inflation slowed to 34.6%, the lowest since Dec-20, easing pressure on household budgets. Within food categories, meat and meat products recorded the mildest price gains at just 0.6% MoM, while chicken prices fell 1.6% MoM, helping stabilize overall protein prices. Beef cuts rose only 1.0% MoM on average, reflecting relatively contained retail inflation.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Leverage New Trade Access to Europe

Mercosur exporters should proactively prepare to capitalize on the EFTA free trade agreement by aligning beef production with European consumer preferences for quality, traceability, and sustainability. Producers can strengthen their competitiveness by certifying plants under European Union (EU) sanitary and phytosanitary standards, diversifying cuts to suit premium and mid-range markets, and building stronger partnerships with European distributors to ensure smooth market entry once the agreement is ratified.

Maximize Export Value Amid Lower Brazilian Beef Output

Brazil should counterbalance its projected beef output decline by focusing on higher-value exports and strategic market diversification. Producers can target premium segments in China and Europe, while meatpackers enhance efficiency through genetic improvement and better herd management to increase carcass yields. To offset US tariffs, exporters should leverage local joint ventures and subsidiaries in key markets, ensuring stable flows despite trade restrictions.

Capitalize on China’s Import Rebound

With China expected to remain the world’s largest beef importer, exporters should position themselves early to capture renewed demand in 2026. This can be achieved through negotiating long-term contracts with Chinese importers, focusing on volume cuts and competitive pricing. Promoting traceability, food safety, and sustainability certifications will strengthen trust among Chinese consumers, particularly as they shift toward value-conscious protein choices.

Stabilize Korean Beef Prices Through Supply and Demand Management

To manage Korea’s seasonal price spikes, policymakers should implement measures that smooth consumption patterns beyond peak holiday demand, such as year-round retail promotions and targeted consumer subsidies. Encouraging import diversification for lower-value cuts could ease pressure on domestic supply while maintaining premium beef as a cultural and festive product. Slaughterhouses and retailers can also collaborate on optimized inventory planning to prevent sharp post-holiday price swings.

Sources: Aflnews, Agrodiario, Agromeat, Bichos de campo