1. Weekly News

Cyprus

Cypriot Producer Targets Sports Nutrition Market with High-Polyphenol Olive Oil Pods

A Company in Cyprus, Oleaphen, is developing a new, high-value niche for olive oil by marketing it as a sports performance and wellness product. The company produces an early-harvest olive oil with exceptionally high levels of polyphenols, particularly the potent anti-inflammatory compound Oleocanthal. Produced from olives picked before they are ripe, the oil is claimed to contain 30 times more polyphenols than standard extra virgin olive oil and 100 times more Oleocanthal. To preserve these volatile compounds and prevent oxidation, the product is sold in innovative single-dose, seaweed-based pods instead of traditional bottles. The brand is already supplying athletes, including players in the English Premier League and a Tour de France cycling team, who report faster recovery times and increased energy. To further validate these benefits, researchers from two Cypriot universities are launching clinical studies on the oil's effects on athletic performance and gut microbiome, adding scientific credibility to this modern revival of a traditional Mediterranean "medicinal" oil. This represents a significant innovation by repositioning olive oil from a culinary staple to a functional health product. It demonstrates how niche markets can be explored by identifying specific bioactive components within olive oil, targeting high-value consumer groups such as athletes with tangible health benefits, and validating these claims through scientific research.

Italy

Italy's New 'Six-Hour' Olive Rule Divides Industry as Harvest Begins

The new Italian ministerial decree mandating a six-hour delivery and registration window for olive traders has created a deep rift within the olive oil sector as the 2025/26 harvest season commences. The Italian Association of Olive Oil Mills (AIFO) and the Producer Organization (PO) Italia Olivicola have strongly opposed the measure, formally requesting a moratorium for at least a year. They argue the rule is logistically impossible, threatening to sever the critical supply chain between southern olive groves and mills in central and northern Italy. This could lead to regional oversupply, speculative price drops, and jeopardize the economic viability of many businesses. In stark contrast, the major PO Unaprol has voiced strong support for the decree, calling it great news that will enhance transparency and traceability. They believe it will eliminate "paper olives" of unknown origin and ultimately increase value and income for growers. This fundamental disagreement between key industry bodies highlights the widespread uncertainty and operational challenges facing the Italian olive oil sector as it navigates the start of a new, contentious campaign.

Morocco

Morocco Forecasts Record Olive Harvest, Expects Prices to Halve

According to the Moroccan Olive Production Federation, Morocco is expecting a record-breaking olive harvest in the 2025/26 season, signaling a strong rebound from the previous year's production crisis. Favorable weather conditions are expected to drive the olive harvest to 2 million metric tons (mmt), more than double the 950,000 metric tons (mt) produced last year. Consequently, olive oil output is projected to surpass 200,000 mt, a significant increase from the 90,000 to 95,000 mt of the 2024/25 season. This surge in supply is anticipated to have a dramatic impact on pricing. After reaching nearly USD 10/liter (MAD 100/liter) in 2024, prices are predicted to fall by approximately 50% to a range of USD 5 to USD 5.50/liter (MAD 50 to MAD 55/liter). This bumper crop is also expected to create an exportable surplus of around 60,000 mt, positioning Moroccan producers to capitalize on new export opportunities, particularly in the United States (US) market, where a new tariff structure gives them a competitive advantage over key European and Tunisian suppliers. While Morocco faces a minimum duty of 10%, key European suppliers such as Spain, Italy, Greece, and Portugal are taxed at 15%, and Tunisia and Turkey face duties of 25% and 15%, respectively.

Spain

Spanish Cooperatives Forecast 1.37 MMT Olive Oil Harvest for 2025/26

Spanish cooperatives are estimating that the country's olive oil production will reach 1,372,500 mt in the upcoming 2025/26 season, a 3% decrease compared to the previous campaign. The overall decline is primarily driven by Andalusia, the nation's largest producing region, which is expected to see a 5% drop to just over 1 mmt. Furthermore, the key provinces of Jaén and Córdoba are forecast to experience double-digit declines of 12.6% (to 490,000 mt) and 14% (to 250,000 mt), respectively. However, these losses are partially offset by strong growth in other Andalusian provinces, with Málaga's production expected to double to 70,000 mt, Seville's to increase by 12% to 125,000 mt, and Huelva’s set to increase by 10% to 9,000 mt. Furthermore, a strong recovery is anticipated in other parts of Spain, with Catalonia's output projected to more than double to 35,000 mt after three poor seasons, while another 10,000 mt could come from the Valencian community which, in this case, would double production. Finally, 15,000 mt could come from Aragon, which would also be a significant increase compared to the previous season.

Tunisia

Tunisian Olive Oil Exports Surge in Volume as Revenues Fall Amid Price Collapse

Tunisia experienced a paradoxical export season in the first 10 months of the 2024/2025 campaign, with a significant increase in volume failing to translate into higher earnings. According to the National Observatory of Agriculture (Onagri), export volumes surged by 39.4% to 252,700 mt compared to the same period last year. However, this was overshadowed by a 29.5% decline in export revenues, driven by a 50.1% collapse in the average export price as of Aug-25. The market continues to be dominated by bulk shipments, which account for 85.3% of total exports, with extra virgin olive oil making up 78.5% of the volume. Italy has cemented its position as the top buyer, importing 67,700 mt (26.8% of the total), followed closely by Spain (25.5%) and the US (20.1%). Italy's dominance is even more pronounced in the organic sector, where it purchases 51.6% of Tunisia's organic olive oil exports, followed by Spain with 19.7% and the US with 17.4%.

Türkiye

Turkish Olive Harvest Begins in Ayvalık with 200,000 MT Forecast for 2025/26

The 2025/26 olive harvest season has officially commenced in Türkiye, with the first harvest event taking place in the key production district of Ayvalık, Balıkesir. Initial results from the first pressings are highly positive, yielding a new crop of olive oil with a very low acidity of 0.3% and very good quality. For the 2025/26 season, a total national olive oil harvest of 200,000 mt is expected. This volume is considered sufficient to meet the country's domestic consumption of 150,000 mt, allowing for an exportable surplus of around 50,000 mt. The Balıkesir region, home to 13 million olive trees, is a critical production hub, accounting for 17% of the nation's total olive output. Despite the promising start, producers noted some yield loss this season due to insufficient rainfall and are hopeful that the rains expected in Oct-35 will contribute to a positive harvest for the remainder of the campaign.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Olive Oil Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Olive Oil Pricing Important Exporters (W38 2024 to W38 2025)

Italy

In Italy, the price of extra virgin olive oil was USD 10.69 per kilogram (kg) in W38, up 0.09% week-on-week (WoW), up 0.56% month-on-month (MoM), and up 3.48% year-on-year (YoY). The marginal WoW and MoM increases indicate the market remains in a stable, high-level equilibrium. Prices are being supported by low pre-harvest stock levels and the premium value of the first oils from the new harvest, with initial results showing signs of a production rebound from the previous season. The sustained YoY price premium is a direct consequence of Italy's structural production deficit and its established position as a high-quality origin. Even as the harvest gets underway, this limited domestic supply is expected to ensure that Italian oil maintains its premium pricing relative to other Mediterranean producers.

Greece

In Greece, the price of extra virgin olive oil was USD 4.70/kg in W38, up 0.21% WoW, up 0.64% MoM, but down 41.32% YoY. The slight WoW and MoM increases occur in a market that remains largely inactive as it awaits the new harvest. With old-season stocks practically depleted, demand is low as cautious buyers are waiting for new oil to become available, slowing market activity. The marginal price uptick reflects firm price expectations for the new crop, with anticipated opening prices in key regions such as the Peloponnese not expected to fall below USD 5.21-5.42/kg (EUR 4.80-5.00/kg). The massive YoY price drop is a direct result of the strong 2024/25 production rebound, which ended the scarcity and record-high prices of the previous year.

Tunisia

In Tunisia, the price of extra virgin olive oil was USD 4.91/kg in W38, up 0.20% WoW, up 5.59% MoM, but down 41.62% YoY. The slight WoW increase indicates that the market has stabilized at the new, higher price point established at the beginning of the 2025/26 campaign. The strong MoM figure is still heavily influenced by the significant price reset that occurred in W37, marking the transition from the old season to the new. The significant YoY decline reflects the market correction from the crisis levels of the previous year. Looking forward, while a strong harvest is anticipated, prices may soften in the coming months due to financial pressures on producers and potentially weaker demand from the US due to tariffs.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Invest in Bioactive Analysis to Develop High-Value Wellness Products

The emergence of a Cypriot producer successfully marketing high-polyphenol olive oil in the sports nutrition sector highlights a crucial pathway for value creation. Producers in all regions, from Spain to Tunisia, should look beyond the traditional culinary market. The recommended action is to invest in the scientific analysis of their own extra virgin olive oils to identify and quantify specific bioactive compounds like Oleocanthal. This data can be used to develop new, high-margin functional food or nutraceutical products targeted at the growing wellness market. Instead of competing solely on price in the bulk market, this strategy allows producers to leverage the scientifically backed health benefits of their oil. It creates a new revenue stream and moves the product up the value chain from a simple commodity to a premium health supplement.

Consider Sourcing from Morocco to Capitalize on Record Harvest and Price Drop

With Morocco forecasting a record olive harvest that is expected to more than double last year's output and cause domestic prices to halve, the country is poised to become a highly competitive sourcing origin for the 2025/26 season. International buyers and importers may want to consider directing their procurement focus toward this market. The combination of high volume, which will create an exportable surplus of around 60,000 mt, and a sharp price decrease presents a significant opportunity to secure high-quality extra virgin olive oil at a competitive advantage. Furthermore, Morocco's favorable tariff position in the key US market enhances its appeal specifically for US buyers. Engaging with Moroccan suppliers now to secure contracts for the new crop presents an opportunity to lock in favorable pricing before the broader market fully absorbs this new supply dynamic.

Sources: Tridge, Kamu 3, Olivo News, Morocco World News, Ecofin Agency, Reuters