1. Weekly News

China

High Temperatures and Reduced Yields Double Prices for Sichuan’s Ehime Jelly Oranges

Ehime jelly oranges from Sichuan, a late-ripening variety, hit the market this autumn at double last year's prices, reaching USD 0.84 per kilogram (kg) (CNY 6/kg) due to a significant drop in citrus yields. Sichuan, a leading producer of late-ripening citrus with 173,333 hectares (ha) planted, faced severe summer heat, with record-breaking temperatures in Jul-24 and Sep-24. This "baking" effect reduced yields in Ehime jelly oranges by about 500 thousand kg and another 1 million kg for other varieties in some villages. As the Ehime oranges flood the market, prices are expected to stabilize following a typical "high-low-high" pattern.

Brazil

Favorable Weather in Brazil's Citrus Belt Boosts Current and Upcoming Orange Harvests

Frequent rains and mild temperatures in Oct-24 have improved conditions in Brazil's central citrus-producing regions, São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro, aiding the development of the 2024/25 orange crop. Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics (Cepea) researchers note that the rainfall benefits the current fruit on trees and supports healthy flowering for the upcoming 2025/26 season, promoting fruit growth and potentially helping to replenish low juice stock levels in the industry.

Italy

Italian Navelina Oranges Launch Season as Prices Drop for South African Imports

The Italian blonde orange season has begun with Navelina oranges from southern Italy, causing a decline in prices for remaining South African stock to clear inventories. However, consumer interest remains low due to the unseasonably warm temperatures across much of Italy, favoring other produce.

Peru

Peruvian Orange Exports Show Mixed Performance with Price Gains in Key Markets

In Sep-24, Peru's orange exports totaled 2,471 tons, valued at USD 3.57 million. Although export volume decreased by 27% year-on-year (YoY), the export value rose by 33%, driven by an 82% increase in the average price, reaching USD 1.45/kg. The Netherlands was the top destination, receiving 81% of shipments despite a 53% drop in volume. The US and Dominican Republic followed, with volume increases but lower average prices. Fresh oranges made up 96% of exports.

Spain

Severe Floods Devastate Valencia’s Agriculture, Leaving Farmers Facing Heavy Losses

Severe flooding has devastated vast agricultural areas in Spain's Valencia region, a central citrus-producing area that supplies nearly two-thirds of the country's orange exports. The floodwaters left fields coated in thick silt, making harvests impossible and putting crops at risk of fungal infections due to prolonged waterlogging. Critical crops such as oranges, persimmons, rice, avocados, almonds, and grapes have suffered significant losses, and the total financial impact is estimated in the millions. Alongside crop damage, the floods swept away livestock, machinery, irrigation systems, and roads. While citrus crops are generally insured, vineyards and nut crops coverage is lower, potentially slowing compensation efforts.

South Africa

South Africa’s 2024 Citrus Season Faces Setbacks, Orange Volumes Affected

South Africa's 2024 citrus season experienced several setbacks, impacting overall production, particularly oranges. Initial projections of nearly 182 million cartons were revised to 164.5 million due to adverse weather, including hot, dry conditions, floods, and strong winds, leading to smaller fruit sizes and fruit drops. Market challenges, such as competition with northern hemisphere fruit and rising processing costs, also hindered output. While total citrus volumes were affected, shipments slightly increased over the previous season, with 162.7 million cartons exported.

United States

California's 2024 Navel Orange Harvest Anticipates Higher Yield

The 2024 California navel orange harvest is expected to reach 78 million 18-kg boxes, a 2% increase from last season. However, unusually high temperatures led to smaller fruit sizes and increased sunburn on the crop. Despite these challenges, the fruit's appearance has improved over the last year, with minimal insect damage. Harvest was set to begin by late Oct-24, with strong early-season prices anticipated due to reduced Valencia supplies and import gaps in North America.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Orange Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Orange Pricing Important Exporters (W43 2023 to W43 2024)

Spain

The Spanish orange market has shown relative price stability, with prices around USD 0.29 to 0.30/kg in recent weeks, reflecting no price change week-on-week (WoW) and a 3.45% increase month-on-month (MoM). This stability comes despite rising production costs, labor shortages, and high demand. However, prices are expected to increase in the coming weeks due to the severe flooding in Valencia. This central citrus-producing region supplies nearly two-thirds of Spain's orange exports. The flooding has caused significant crop damage and disruptions, with fields covered in silt and risks of fungal infections, likely reducing supply and driving prices higher.

South Africa

South Africa's orange prices have recently shown a decline of 7.33% WoW, following a period of high prices, with a peak in W43. Despite this recent drop, the MoM price has increased by 56.93%, reflecting the impact of several setbacks in the 2024 citrus season, including adverse weather conditions such as hot, dry spells, floods, and strong winds. These weather events led to a reduction in projected citrus volumes. This decrease in supply, combined with challenges such as competition from northern hemisphere fruit and rising processing costs, has put upward pressure on prices.

Egypt

In W44, orange prices in Egypt increased to USD 0.24/kg, reflecting a substantial 60% rise in WoW and a YoY increase of 33.33%. The recent bullish trend indicates market adjustments, as oversupply levels led to low prices in previous weeks and higher demand. However, the MoM price dropped by 36.84%. The monthly decline can be attributed to an oversupply in the market as producers prepared for the upcoming citrus harvest in Dec-24, releasing more stock to balance inventories and mitigate concerns over excess supply. As supply and demand dynamics stabilize, prices are expected to be more consistent.

United States

In the US, orange prices have stabilized WoW at USD 1.82/kg in W44, following a peak in W42 and a subsequent decline as the market steadies. Prices have also dropped by 6.67% MoM, reflecting a gradual return to stability after a period of elevated prices driven by supply constraints related to HLB disease, which has severely impacted Florida's orange production and weather-related challenges like Hurricane Milton. YoY prices are up by 8.98%, highlighting ongoing supply limitations as the US grapples with lower orange output this year compared to last, mainly due to Florida's production setbacks.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Capitalize on Seasonal Gaps with Counter-Seasonal Exports

With regions like South Africa nearing the end of their orange season and European demand likely to increase due to Valencia’s flooding impact, exporters in Southern Hemisphere countries, such as Brazil and Peru can take advantage of counter-seasonal demand in Europe. These exporters can capture higher prices and strengthen European market share by timing shipments to align with potential shortages in Spain and Italy.

Expand Value-Added and Processed Orange Products for Export Stability

Given current fluctuations in fresh orange supply and prices, producing countries could benefit from stabilizing revenue by diversifying into processed products such as orange juice and concentrates, experiencing high demand and elevated prices in international markets. Establishing or expanding local processing facilities would enable these countries to capitalize on the demand for orange juice, create consistent export opportunities, and hedge against fresh orange price volatility. Processed orange products are also more accessible to regions where importing fresh produce is challenging due to logistical issues or tariffs, enhancing market reach and offering more predictable revenue streams.

Sources: Tridge, Agraria PE, Agro Peru, Comité de Cítricos, Fresh Fruit Portal, Guoji Guo Shu, Portal do Agronegocio, Reuters, Terra e Vita