1. Weekly News

Argentina

Argentina's 2024/25 Rice Production Set to Climb

For the 2024/25 season, Argentina expects to produce 1.462 million metric tons (mmt) of paddy rice, up from 1.089 mmt in 2023/24. Farmers plan to expand rice cultivation from 180 thousand hectares (ha) last season to 215 thousand ha. After milling, Argentina forecasts rice production to reach 950 thousand metric tons (mt). Domestic consumption of milled rice should rise slightly, from 465 thousand mt in 2023/24 to 480 thousand mt. Argentina also anticipates a significant increase in rice exports, reaching 440 thousand mt compared to 300 thousand mt in the prior season. As a result, ending rice stocks are expected to grow to 97 thousand mt, up from 63 thousand mt the previous year.

Indonesia

Indonesia Plans 1 Million MT Rice Import from India for 2025

According to the Coordinating Minister for Food Affairs, Indonesia plans to import 1 mmt of rice from India in early 2025 to secure sufficient supply until the main harvest in March. This measure comes in response to a projected decline in domestic rice production, estimated to decrease by 2.43% year-on-year (YoY) to 30.34 mmt in 2024 due to delays in planting and harvest periods caused by prolonged dry weather. The National Food Agency's head emphasized that additional imports are needed to cover demand through February, as rice output typically falls during December to February. Indonesia's rice imports have surged in recent years, exceeding 3 mmt annually. For 2024, the country has set a target of importing up to 3.6 mmt. Indonesia plans to expand rice cultivation significantly as part of a broader strategy to enhance food security and reduce import dependency. The government aims to open 750 thousand to 1 million ha of new rice fields in 2025, aligning with its goal of achieving food self-sufficiency.

Spain

Spain's 2024 Rice Harvest Sees Mixed Outcomes Due to Floods

Spain's rice sector is aiming for a more productive harvest in 2024 compared to the previous year, which was severely impacted by drought. However, recent floods in the Southern regions, particularly Andalusia and Extremadura, have delayed the harvest. In contrast, the harvest is already complete in the Valencian Community, Catalonia, and Aragon. Water conditions have played a central role in the challenges faced by Spanish rice producers this year. Due to the drought early in the season, farmers in Andalusia and Extremadura delayed sowing, only proceeding after receiving assurances of irrigation from local water authorities. This late start has now been further hindered by heavy rains, complicating the harvest process. Spain's rice sowing area expanded 48% YoY in 2024, reaching 81,300 ha. Northern producers in Catalonia, Valencia, and Aragon, who had adequate water supplies early on, report improved yields this year.

Philippines

Philippines' Rice Imports Surged in Oct-24

As of late Oct-24, the Philippines imported 3.68 mmt of rice, marking a significant increase compared to the same period in 2023 when imports stood at 2.84 mmt. According to data from the Rice Import Licensing Authority, this year’s figure exceeds the 2023 rice import volume of 3.61 mmt. Vietnam remains the Philippines' top rice supplier, with imports from Vietnam totaling 2.91 mmt, which accounts for over 79% of the Philippines' total rice imports in 2024. Thailand ranks second with 457,673.28 mt, representing 12.4% of imports, followed by Pakistan with 162,369.48 mt, Myanmar with 114,766.75 mt, and India with 22,039.04 mt. The Philippines' rice imports in Oct-24 alone reached 380,541.58 mt, more than double the 163,217.40 mt imported in Oct-23. This surge suggests that the Philippines may surpass 4 million tons of total rice imports for 2024, with projections reaching as high as 4.5 mmt by year-end.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Rice Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Rice Pricing Important Exporters (W44 2023 to W44 2024)

India

In W44, wholesale rice prices in India increased by 3.13% week-on-week (WoW) and 1.54% month-on-month (MoM), reaching USD 0.66 per kilogram (kg). This rise follows the Indian government's decision to resume exports of non-basmati white rice. As a result, exporters have begun receiving inquiries from buyers worldwide for basmati rice. Basmati rice exporters believe that the government's decision will help stabilize basmati rice prices, which have declined due to a decrease in global orders.

Thailand

In W44, wholesale prices for Thai rice decreased by 5.88% WoW and 2.04% MoM, falling to USD 0.48/kg. This price drop can be attributed primarily to the increase in supply as the Thai harvest season progresses, leading to a greater volume of rice entering the market. Additionally, the current market conditions reflect softer demand, as buyers could hold back on purchases in anticipation of further price declines. Overall, the increased supply from the ongoing harvest and potential shifts in demand dynamics have decreased wholesale prices for Thai rice.

Vietnam

In W44, wholesale prices for Vietnamese regular rice held steady at USD 0.60/kg, decreasing by 22.58% MoM and 25% YoY. A trader in Ho Chi Minh City noted that weak demand and concerns about ongoing floods in Northern Vietnam slow trading activity and could impact rice production. However, some risks are mitigated since most rice exports come from the Mekong Delta in the South. Despite the current price decline, analysts project that Vietnam's rice exports will reach a record turnover of approximately USD 5 billion in 2024, driven by strong demand from traditional markets such as Indonesia and the Philippines. Indonesia plans to import 450,000 mt of rice due to reduced domestic output, and the Philippines also aims to increase its rice imports next year.

United States

In W44, the wholesale price of milled white long rice in Arkansas, United States, reached USD 0.78/kg, reflecting a decline of 1.27% both MoM and YoY. According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the rice harvest in Arkansas is progressing smoothly, with no significant weather disruptions or adverse crop conditions reported. By the end of September 2024, farmers had harvested over 25% of the state's rice crop, with 76% rated as good or excellent. Early mill yield reports expected in the coming weeks will provide valuable insights into this year's crop performance.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Diversify of Cultivation Practices

Argentina should implement diversified cultivation practices to enhance resilience against climate-related challenges. By integrating drought-resistant rice varieties, such as the "INIA 8" or "Cuba 22," farmers can maintain stable yields even in adverse weather conditions. Moreover, adopting water-efficient irrigation systems like drip or sprinkler irrigation can optimize water usage, which is crucial in regions facing fluctuating rainfall patterns. Education and training programs focusing on these sustainable practices can empower farmers to make informed decisions, increasing productivity and profitability. Engaging agricultural extension services to disseminate knowledge about soil health and crop rotation strategies will further enhance the sustainability of rice farming. This holistic approach promotes environmental health and ensures that farmers can sustain their livelihoods despite the uncertainties posed by climate change.

Strengthen Supply Chain Management

The Philippines should improve its rice supply management system to enhance food security and reduce import dependency. This can be achieved through significant investments in transportation infrastructure, including developing better road networks and shipping facilities to facilitate the timely movement of rice from rural farms to urban markets. Expanding storage capacities will also play a crucial role in minimizing post-harvest losses, which currently hinder the efficiency of the rice supply chain. Implementing advanced logistics management practices, such as real-time tracking and inventory management systems, can further streamline operations and reduce wastage. Collaborating with local farmers' cooperatives and private sector stakeholders can foster innovative solutions tailored to specific regional challenges, ensuring a more reliable and efficient rice distribution network that meets the increasing domestic demand.

Enhance International Trade Relations

Indonesia should strengthen its international trade relations, particularly with major rice-exporting countries like India and Vietnam. By negotiating favorable trade agreements that reduce tariffs and streamline customs procedures, Indonesia can secure a more stable and affordable rice supply to meet its growing consumption needs. Establishing long-term supply contracts with these countries would further ensure a consistent flow of imports, minimizing the impact of domestic production fluctuations. Moreover, enhancing partnerships with international trading companies can improve Indonesia's access to global rice markets, fostering competitive pricing and reliable supply. By strategically positioning itself as a critical player in regional trade, Indonesia can bolster its food security and reduce its reliance on unpredictable domestic production cycles, leading to a more resilient and self-sufficient rice market.

Sources: Vov, Efe Agro, UkrAgroConsult, AgroInfo.vn, Portal Do Agronegócio