1. Weekly News

Brazil

Brazilian Tomato Prices Dropped in W46 Amid Abundant Winter Harvest

Brazilian tomato prices declined in W46 due to an abundant supply driven by high productivity from the ongoing winter harvest. In São Paulo's wholesale market, 3A salad tomatoes were sold at an average of USD 9.63 per 20-kilogram (kg) box, marking a 16.4% week-on-week (WoW). Similarly, prices fell by 10.1% WoW in Belo Horizonte to USD 8.43/box, 3.5% WoW in Campinas to USD 11.35/box, and 12.6% WoW in Rio de Janeiro to USD 8.08/box. Despite rainfall in crucial producing regions like São Paulo and Minas Gerais disrupting harvesting, the supply remained high, exerting downward pressure on prices. The rain also affected fruit quality, leading to blemishes on the skin and further reducing market values.

Egypt

Egypt's Tomato Productivity Surges with Nile Crop Introduction

Agricultural productivity in Egypt is surging, particularly in tomato cultivation, driven by the introduction of the Nile tomato crop, which has boosted market supply and reduced prices. The nation’s tomato exports ranked ninth globally, contributing 37,146 thousand metric tons (mt) to total agricultural exports of 7.1 million metric tons (mmt), valued at USD 4.1 billion, a USD 1 billion increase from last year. Covering approximately 520 thousand acres across regions like Beheira, Fayoum, and Alexandria, tomatoes are cultivated in three seasons, with productivity averaging 15 to 18 mt/acre. Modern greenhouses and protected cultivation methods have further enhanced output, with Egypt producing over 9.36 mmt annually. Tomato prices will decrease as harvesting progresses in Alexandria, ensuring affordable vegetable and fruit prices for citizens.

India

India's Tomato Prices Dropped 22.4% MoM in Nov-24

The retail price of tomatoes in India has fallen significantly, with the all-India average retail price as of November 14, 2024. The price dropped 22.4% month-on-month (MoM) to USD 0.62/kg, down from USD 0.80/kg. This price reduction is due to improved supply, as reflected in a nearly 50% decline in modal prices at Azadpur Mandi, from USD 69.63 per quintal to USD 35.14 per quintal. Significant markets like Pimpalgaon, Madanapalle, and Kolar reported similar price drops. The country's total tomato production for the 2023/24 season is estimated at 21.32 mmt, a 4% year-on-year (YoY) increase. While tomatoes are produced year-round, there is seasonality in production, with October and November being critical sowing months. Adverse weather conditions, such as prolonged rains in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, had previously caused a price surge during Oct-24. However, the supply has stabilized due to seasonal arrivals from regions like Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, and Gujarat, which have helped fill supply gaps and bring prices down.

Italy

Sicilian Tomato Prices Declined in W46 Due to Increased Harvests

In W46, Sicilian tomato prices in Italy declined due to increased harvested quantities. The most significant drops have been observed in the Ciliegino and Piccadilly varieties, while prices for Datterini tomatoes remain high as production continues to face challenges. The first batches of Marinda green ribbed tomatoes have also been introduced, but their prices remain elevated due to limited supply. The market trend reflects an overall shift with supply pressures impacting price stability for certain tomato varieties in Sicily.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Tomato Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Tomato Pricing Important Exporters (W46 2023 to W46 2024)

Mexico

In W46, Mexico's wholesale tomato prices fell to USD 1.93/kg, reflecting a significant drop of 18.91% WoW, 21.54% MoM, and 10.65% YoY. This price decline is primarily due to an expected increase in tomato production, with output projected to rise from 3.22 mmt in 2023 to 3.30 mmt in 2024. This supply increase is helping stabilize the market and could lead to further price reductions. Although some producers are investing in protected cultivation techniques to reduce the impact of adverse weather, a significant portion of Mexico's tomato production still depends on open-field farming, making it more susceptible to weather challenges and resulting in lower yields during unfavorable conditions.

Morocco

In W46, Moroccan wholesale tomato prices remained stable WoW but saw a 5.26% MoM increase, reaching USD 0.40/kg. This price rise is due to strong export demand, especially from France, which remains a crucial market for Moroccan tomatoes. Other European Union (EU) countries, such as the United Kingdom (UK) and Sub-Saharan Africa, are also significant buyers. Notably, Germany's imports have increased, reaching 25 thousand mt in the first seven months of 2024, up from 21 thousand mt during the same period in 2023. Morocco's total export volume for 2024 will depend on autumn weather patterns and the lingering effects of summer heatwaves, which have strained tomato production. Growers in crucial regions such as Agadir, Mohammedia, El Jadida, and Oualidia expect a decrease in overall output due to these adverse weather conditions, potentially affecting the country's ability to meet the high export demand fully.

Spain

In W46, Spain's wholesale tomato prices fell by 2.08% WoW, reaching USD 0.94/kg. Despite this decline, the season has started positively, driven by favorable weather conditions influencing fruit quality and a smooth crop transition between Northern and Southern Europe. Growers in Almeria and Murcia aimed for an earlier harvest following the delays of the previous season, but supply has remained limited. Moderate rains in these regions, cloudy days, and lower temperatures on Oct-24 and Nov-24 have delayed production. Consequently, prices saw an 8.05% increase MoM and a 10.59% rise YoY. These increases can be attributed to adverse weather conditions, including flooding, logistical challenges, and concerns over the Tomato Brown Rugose Fruit Virus (ToBRFV), prompting many Spanish producers to adopt virus-resistant varieties. Moreover, a decrease in tomato acreage, driven by profitability challenges from last year's low prices and higher labor costs, has further supported the upward pressure on prices.

Türkiye

In W46, Türkiye's wholesale tomato prices surged significantly, rising by 12.99% WoW, 41.46% MoM, and a dramatic 185.25% YoY. The sharp price increase is mainly due to ongoing drought conditions, severely reducing tomato yields. Moreover, rising costs, particularly for diesel and transportation, have outpaced the price growth of tomatoes, adding financial pressure on producers. This situation has sparked dissatisfaction among farmers, leading to protests in critical agricultural regions. Furthermore, with supply constraints from Spain and Morocco due to extreme weather and water shortages, there has been an increased demand for Turkish vine tomatoes in European markets, further boosting Turkish exports. This shift in demand and the production challenges faced by other major suppliers have contributed to the significant price hike in Türkiye.

France

France's wholesale tomato prices significantly increased in W46, rising by 23.17% WoW and 15.43% YoY, reaching USD 2.02/kg. The French tomato season is nearing its conclusion, with many producers approaching the end of their harvest. While there is potential for prices to rise, the steady supply of tomatoes in the French market has kept prices relatively stable. However, the quality difference due to the late harvest has resulted in considerable price variations between different batches. Moreover, despite moderate demand, tomato prices remain high due to a more significant production shortfall than last year, influencing market conditions. Prices are generally considered "fair" in France but are still lower than those in neighboring markets like the Netherlands and Belgium.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Diversify Tomato Varieties and Improve Crop Rotation

Spain and Italy face adverse weather conditions, reduced planting areas, and disease risks that have impacted production and led to price volatility. One of the most effective ways to manage these challenges is to encourage farmers to diversify their tomato varieties. Producers can smooth out supply fluctuations throughout the year by planting different varieties with varying harvest times and disease resistance. For example, earlier varieties can be harvested in the spring to meet early demand. In contrast, late-maturing varieties can be harvested later in the season, ensuring a steady supply to the market. Moreover, implementing crop rotation practices can reduce the risk of soil depletion and pest infestations often accompanying mono-cropping, thus improving long-term soil health and ensuring higher yields. Crop rotation can also help manage the spread of diseases, minimizing the risk of future crop losses and ensuring that production remains consistent. This diversification strategy will help producers adapt to changing climate conditions and mitigate the impacts of localized supply shortages, ultimately stabilizing prices in the market.

Improve Water Management Systems

Both Morocco and Türkiye are experiencing severe weather conditions, such as drought and water shortages, which are putting pressure on tomato production and leading to sharp price increases. Therefore, these countries should prioritize investments in efficient water management systems. For example, adopting drip irrigation systems can drastically reduce water usage while ensuring each plant receives the right amount of water directly at its roots, leading to better yields. Rainwater harvesting systems can also help capture and store water during wet periods, which can be used during dry spells. Promoting soil moisture sensors and weather forecasting tools will also allow farmers to make more informed irrigation decisions, reducing water waste and ensuring consistent crop production. By improving water management, Morocco and Türkiye can stabilize production and mitigate the risks of unpredictable weather patterns, leading to more stable prices.

Invest in Post-Harvest Technologies

In Brazil, Mexico, and India, where high productivity during peak harvest often impacts tomato prices, excess supply leads to price declines. Therefore, it is essential to invest in advanced post-harvest technologies. Adopting refrigerated storage and controlled atmosphere storage techniques can significantly extend the shelf life of tomatoes, reducing the risk of spoilage during surpluses. For instance, cold storage facilities can preserve the freshness and quality of tomatoes for more extended periods, allowing farmers to store their produce during periods of high supply and gradually release it to the market to avoid a price drop. Packaging technologies like Modified Atmosphere Packaging (MAP) can also help maintain quality and reduce waste. This would improve price stability and allow producers to target export markets more effectively, avoiding market crashes due to over-supply in the local market.

Sources: Akhbarelyom, Eastfruit, Portal Do Agronegócio, The Print, Terraevita, Fresh Plaza