1. Weekly News

Global

2024/25 Global Corn Production to Decline, with China and Brazil Set for Growth

The United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA) latest grain and oilseed estimates for the 2024/25 campaign show a mixed outlook for global agricultural markets. Global corn production will decline by 1.3% year-on-year (YoY), with the United States (US) facing a 3.1% YoY drop. However, China and Brazil are expected to increase their corn harvests. World corn exports will decrease slightly, with the US driving most of the decline. Moreover, several countries are forecasted to experience a sharp drop in ending stocks, indicating tightening supply conditions in key regions.

Argentina

Adverse Weather Pressured Argentina’s Corn Crop

In W4, Central and Southern Argentina received some rainfall over the weekend after a hot and dry start, while northern regions remained dry. The forecast predicts marginally wetter and cooler conditions across Central and Southern Argentina compared to W4, but above-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall will continue, stressing crop growth. Early-planted corn, now in the grain-filling stage, largely avoided the recent extreme weather, but late-planted corn has started pollination under adverse conditions. This will likely further reduce yield estimates in the coming weeks. As a result, the Rosario Grain Exchange has lowered its 2024/25 corn production estimate to 48 million metric tons (mmt). As of late W4, Argentina had planted 95% of its corn crop, with about 300 thousand hectares (ha) remaining to be planted in the far northern regions.

Brazil

Brazil Faces Slow Corn Planting Pace as Global Supplies Hit Decade Low

Corn producers in Brazil are facing increasing pressure as global corn supplies hit a decade-low in 2025. Brazilian corn stocks are running low ahead of the new season, with the sowing of the second corn crop, which accounts for nearly 80% of the country’s annual production, progressing slowly. Planting will continue through Mar-25, with harvesting set to begin in May-25. In Mato Grosso, Brazil’s key corn-producing state, farmers had planted only 1% of the planned area by January 24. This pace is the slowest since 2011 and comparable to 2021. Untimely rains delayed soybean harvests in Mato Grosso, which subsequently delayed corn sowing, as both crops are planted in the same fields.

Brazil's Corn Exports Dropped 44.73% YoY in Jan-25

The Foreign Trade Secretariat (SECEX) reported a decrease in Brazil's unmilled corn exports for Jan-25, totaling 2.69 mmt. This marks a 44.73% drop YoY. The daily average export volume was 158,548 metric tons (mt), a 28.5% YoY decline from Jan-24. There is a decrease in volume and revenue, totaling USD 587.24 million (a 32% YoY drop from Jan-24), with an average price per mt of USD 215.90 (down 4.9% YoY).

South Africa

South Africa’s Corn Production Recovers in 2024/25 with Net Exports Forecasted

Despite challenging weather conditions that reduced the planted area to 3 million ha, South Africa is projected to remain a net exporter of corn in the 2024/25 marketing year (MY). This will result in an expected production of 16 mmt, an improvement over the 2023/24 drought-stricken crop that required imports. The recovery of the South African broiler industry, impacted by a highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreak in 2023, has stabilized domestic demand. The USDA expects South African corn production to exceed 15 mmt, with a portion allocated for export. In 2023/24, South Africa is anticipated to export around 2 mmt of corn, primarily to neighboring countries, and will not import any corn in 2024/25.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Maize Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Maize Pricing Important Exporters (W5 2024 to W5 2025)

United States

In W5, wholesale maize prices in the US remained stable week-on-week (WoW) but increased by 5.26% month-on-month (MoM), reaching USD 0.20 per kilogram (kg). This price rise follows a reduced global corn production forecast for 2024/25 by the International Grains Council (IGC). The forecast downgrade is mainly due to a reduction in the expected US corn crop, which is now estimated at 377.6 mmt, aligning with the revised figures from the USDA.

Brazil

In W5, wholesale maize prices in Brazil decreased by 12.50% MoM, reaching USD 0.21/kg. This decline is primarily due to expectations of increased maize production in 2025, which is anticipated to exert downward pressure on prices. The Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (CEPEA) notes that lower future values are related to the expectation of higher production in 2025 compared to 2024. Moreover, the USDA increased Brazil's corn production for the 2024/25 MY to 128 mmt, driven by increased prices in international markets and the Brazilian Real (BRL) devaluation.

Argentina

In W5, Argentinian maize prices increased by 5% WoW, 10.53% MoM, and 16.67% YoY reaching USD 0.21/kg. This price increase is primarily due to adverse weather conditions, as hot temperatures and insufficient rainfall have affected the country's maize production. BAGE has revised its forecast for Argentina's 2024/25 corn crop, lowering it by 1 mmt to an expected yield of 49 mmt. The reduction is mainly due to high temperatures and dry conditions, particularly in the southern farmlands and central-eastern areas of Entre Rios province.

Ukraine

In W5, wholesale maize prices in Ukraine rose by 4.76% MoM and 69.23% YoY, reaching USD 0.22/kg. This significant price increase is primarily due to a substantial reduction in maize production caused by severe drought conditions. According to the USDA, Ukraine's corn output is expected to decline to 25 mmt in 2024/25 MY, a 23% decrease from the previous season and the lowest production level since 2017. The drought adversely affected crop yields, leading to a tighter domestic maize supply.

Romania

In W5, Romanian maize prices remained unchanged WoW but declined 9.09% YoY. There is a significant reduction in maize production due to adverse weather conditions. Romania harvested only 4.88 mmt of maize from 1.8 million ha in 2024, marking the lowest since 2015. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) also projected Romania's maize output to drop to 7.8 mmt, the lowest level in 11 years. Moreover, many farmers have shifted from maize to more profitable crops like rapeseed, further decreasing maize cultivation areas. These factors have reduced maize supply, exerting upward pressure on prices.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Optimize Domestic Production with Adaptation to Weather Extremes

Corn producers in regions like Argentina and Brazil, which face adverse weather conditions affecting planting and yields, should invest in resilient farming practices such as drought-resistant seed varieties, efficient irrigation systems, and early-season planting techniques. Recommended drought-tolerant corn hybrids include Pioneer P2839VYHR, Dekalb DKB 310 PRO3, Syngenta NK 488 VIP3, and Bayer Agroceres AG 8780 PRO3, which are specifically developed to withstand water stress while maintaining yield potential. Implementing these measures would help mitigate the impact of unpredictable weather on production, ensuring higher resilience and more stable yields. This approach can reduce the risk of crop losses, particularly during critical stages like pollination and grain-filling, ultimately leading to more consistent supply volumes and better price stability.

Increase Strategic Corn Imports to Manage Supply Risks in Key Markets

Importers, especially in countries like South Africa and the US, should consider securing additional corn imports from alternative markets to diversify their sources and reduce dependence on regions facing production challenges, such as the US and Ukraine. With reduced global corn production in 2024/25, having access to diverse suppliers will help mitigate supply risks. Expanding the network of corn suppliers and establishing long-term contracts with alternative exporters (e.g., Brazil, Argentina, and South Africa) can better navigate production volatility. This proactive strategy can prevent severe disruptions in corn availability, especially during tight supply periods, thus ensuring a steady supply and stable pricing.

Hedge Against Price Volatility with Strategic Forward Contracts

Traders, food processors, and large-scale corn consumers should consider entering forward contracts for corn purchases at fixed prices, particularly in markets like Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine, where prices fluctuate due to production forecasts and weather conditions. By locking in prices early, businesses can hedge against price hikes caused by global production declines, especially with a significant forecast drop in global corn supply. Locking in prices through forward contracts allows businesses to manage costs, protect margins, and avoid the uncertainty brought on by market fluctuations.

Sources: Tridge, 3tres3, NoticiasAgricolas, UkrAgroConsult