August Outlook Report: Meat and Seafood

•Beef prices in Europe and Brazil are declining in annual terms. In Europe, the fall in consumption is outpacing the decline in domestic production, while in Brazil, higher production and lower demand continue to exert downward pressure. On the other hand, prices in the United States (US), while easing from June’s highs, remain considerably elevated on strong demand and ongoing expectations of lower production ahead.
•Poultry prices remained practically unchanged in Brazil as strong exports remain supportive, but ongoing lower production costs exert downward pressure. Prices remain below 2022 levels but above the previous year’s average, mirroring production costs.
•Fresh Atlantic salmon prices in Norway, the largest exporter of this product, experienced a slight recovery in July after experiencing their first YoY drop in two years during the past month. Nonetheless, demand, which had strengthened due to lower prices, resumed its YoY declines. There’s downside room from current levels, but not ample, and prices are expected again to narrow the gap from their 2023 levels and last year’s.
•Overall, prices in Spain and India remain subdued on low demand. These price points reflect what is going on with this market at the global level. In a context of an already oversupplied import market, increased production and competition among the major exporters, continue to drive prices lower. Yet, there is not much downside room since more declines would eventually disincentivize production.