February 2025 Outlook Report: Meat

- Key Indicators: Global freight prices averaged USD 3,945.46 per 40-foot container in Jan-25, marking a 7.3% rise from Dec-24 and a significant 35.63% year-on-year (YoY) increase. This rise was driven by general rate increases (GRIs), pre-Lunar New Year (LNY) 2025 demand, and global trade tensions. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) meat price index averaged 117.73 points in Jan-25, a 1.38% month-on-month (MoM) decline but remaining 8.15% higher than the previous year. The overall drop was driven by lower global prices for lamb, pork, and poultry, which outweighed an increase in beef quotations.

- Beef: Global beef export prices are expected to be bullish through Feb-25, driven by supply constraints, strong demand, and expanding trade. United States (US) prices are expected to remain elevated due to limited supply, while Brazil’s upward trend is fueled by growing international demand. Favorable global supply conditions are anticipated to sustain high Australian beef prices. In the European Union (EU), rising prices will be supported by strong domestic and export demand.

- Poultry: US poultry prices are likely to stay high in Feb-25 despite export restrictions due to the spread of avian influenza and tariff policy uncertainties. Brazil’s export prices are projected to remain stable, driven by strong global demand and favorable market conditions. In the EU, poultry prices are expected to hold steady, supported by sustained domestic demand.

- Pork: US pork prices are expected to remain stable in Feb-25, supported by a balanced global supply-demand situation despite record-high production and exports. In Brazil, strong global demand and a diversified export base will keep pork prices elevated. Meanwhile, EU pork prices are likely to stay low, though a negative production outlook may lead to a rebound in the near future as supply tightens.

- Lamb: New Zealand’s lamb export prices are expected to stay bullish in Feb-25, driven by tight supply and a strategic shift toward higher-value markets in Europe and North America, reducing reliance on China. In Australia, lamb prices are projected to see a slight rebound, supported by strong demand from key markets in North America, China, and the Middle East.