March 2025 Outlook Report: Vegetables

- Key Indicators: Global freight prices averaged USD 3,129.10 per 40-foot container in Feb-25, marking a 20.69% month-on-month (MoM) drop and a 7.70% year-on-year (YoY) decrease. This decline is attributed to the post-Lunar New Year (LNY) slowdown. Meanwhile, the World Bank's Fertilizer Index averaged 133.47 points in Feb-25, marking a 7.39% MoM increase and a 13.11% YoY rise, driven by higher prices for urea, diammonium phosphate (DAP), and potassium chloride.

- Potato: Potato markets in France, the Netherlands, and Egypt have experienced notable fluctuations driven by various supply and demand factors. In France, potato prices have remained relatively stable at lower levels since Oct-24, due to a significant increase in production and weaker export demand, despite higher production costs. In the Netherlands, prices have been volatile, with a decline in Feb-25 attributed to increased supply from expanded acreage and early potato varieties, alongside weak demand from key export markets. In Egypt, potato prices have dropped following a peak in Nov-24, due to oversupply from the Nile season harvest and weak export demand, with the seasonal fluctuation adding further downward pressure on prices.

- Tomato: Tomato markets in Mexico, Morocco, and Spain have shown varying trends due to local and seasonal factors. In Mexico, a significant decline in prices has been driven by oversupply following favorable growing conditions and the imposition of a United States (US) export tariff, which increased domestic availability. In Morocco, after a sharp price drop in Dec-24, prices have recovered due to adverse weather conditions and strong export demand, particularly from European markets. Spain experienced significant volatility, with prices initially rising due to weather disruptions but later dropping as weather improved and supply increased, although prices remain higher than last year due to reduced supply in previous months and increased imports.

- Onion: Onion markets in India, Mexico, and Egypt have faced significant volatility over the past year, influenced by varying local factors. In India, prices peaked in Nov-24 before stabilizing in early 2025 due to oversupply from late Kharif onions and crop losses from heavy rains, with seasonal cycles continuing to impact prices. Mexico has seen a sharp decline in prices since Nov-24, driven by oversupply from early planting, increased imports, and reduced export demand, further exacerbated by a temporary US-imposed tariff. Egypt experienced a peak in Feb-24 followed by a steep drop in mid-2024, with the MoM drop in early 2025 largely due to strong local supply from acreage expansion and favorable weather, while the YoY decline reflects normalization after last year's supply shortages.