May 2024 Outlook Report: Vegetables

Bojan Mijatovic
Published May 14, 2024
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- Key Indicators: Global freight prices are on a downward trend in Mar-24 and Apr-24 as global freight companies learn to navigate the tensions in the Middle East. However, freight prices will likely remain elevated as global ocean cargo demand is up year-on-year (YoY) and is expected to increase further in the coming months. The World Bank fertilizer index fell 4.66% between Dec-23 and Apr-24, indicating a subtle but consistent downward trend.
- Potato: France potato production amounted to 6.8 million metric tons (mmt) in 2023 and experiencing a 24% year-over-year (YoY) increase in retail prices between Jan-22 and Jan-24. Despite challenges like droughts and climate change, the French potato market remains active, with prices expected to continue rising due to low European supply. The Netherlands faced a smaller potato harvest in 2023, with production decreasing by 14.9% YoY compared to 2022. Conversely, Germany's potato production saw a 2% YoY increase in 2023. The fresh potato market in Germany faces challenges due to limited supply caused by unfavorable weather. However, prices have stabilized since Oct-23, and Tridge anticipates this stability to continue in the months to come.
- Tomato: A recent court ruling regarding the alleged dumping of Mexican tomatoes in the United States (US) could impact trade dynamics. Despite this, increased supply has dropped wholesale prices in Mexico recently. Morocco, a country that has been dealing with adverse weather affecting tomato yields, is now recovering. Spain has faced strong competition from Morocco and Dutch tomato suppliers, which have pressured prices down. Wholesale prices in Spain have declined significantly recently, reaching last year's lows, with expectations of maintaining this level in the upcoming period.
- Onion: Mexico is a significant global exporter of onions, primarily to the US, accounting for 98.5% of its export share. Despite challenges like storms affecting production, Mexico's onion prices have been dropping due to low demand. A significant onion exporter with over 20% global market share, the Netherlands is currently facing a scarcity of red onions due to limited acreage and harvest challenges. The 2024 export volume may be moving more slowly, but the industry's efforts to address pest issues and expand acreage inspire hope. The world's second-largest onion exporter, India made headlines with its export ban from Dec-23 to Mar-24. Prompted by domestic shortages and rising prices, this decision had the potential to disrupt the global onion market.

Table of contents

Part I: Key Indicators

- Freight

- Fertilizer

Part II: Potato

- France

- Netherlands

- Germany

Part III: Tomato

- Mexico

- Morocco

- Spain

Part IV: Onion

- India

- Netherlands

- Mexico

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