May 2025 Outlook Report: Grains

- Key Indicators: Global freight prices averaged USD 2,045.93 per 40-foot container in Apr-25, marking a 6.87% month-on-month (MoM) drop and a 15.61% year-on-year (YoY) decrease, primarily driven by the United States (US)-China trade tensions. Meanwhile, the World Bank's Fertilizer Index averaged 129.25 points, marking a 0.66% MoM increase, driven by higher prices for diammonium phosphate (DAP) and potassium chloride, which more than offset the decline in urea prices. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Cereal Price Index averaged 111.0 points, marking a 1.19% MoM increase but remaining 0.18% lower YoY. The monthly rise was driven by price increases across all major cereal categories.

- Wheat: Australia’s wheat export prices are projected to rise slightly or remain stable in the near term, supported by growing Chinese demand amid weather concerns threatening domestic wheat production. Russia’s wheat export prices may firm due to tightening exportable supplies and strong international demand. In contrast, US Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat export prices are expected to remain under pressure due to ample domestic stocks, improved crop conditions, and strong YoY export performance.

- Maize: US corn prices are expected to rise further in the coming months, supported by a 90-day tariff rollback with China that could boost demand. Brazilian corn prices are anticipated to remain elevated due to tight supplies and strong ethanol demand but may face pressure from shifting US trade policies. Argentina’s maize prices are likely to stay firm amid steady demand and harvest progress, though growing US competitiveness could cap further gains.

- Rice: India’s rice export prices are expected to stay elevated or stable in the near term due to ongoing demand driven by tensions with Pakistan. However, they are likely to remain below last year’s levels amid intensified global competition following India’s easing of export restrictions. Thai rice prices are projected to remain weak due to global oversupply, strong competition, and unresolved US tariff issues. Although short-term price gains in Vietnam may be supported by rising demand for high-quality rice and potential market stabilization, prices are unlikely to surge significantly.