Analysis of the supply and demand situation for Chinese agricultural products in February 2026 (CASDE-No.116)

Corn: This month's forecast for the supply and demand situation of corn in China remains consistent with last month. As the Spring Festival approaches, feed enterprises and deep processing enterprises have completed replenishing their stocks, market transactions have become subdued, and prices have remained stable. Currently, the sales progress of corn is generally faster compared to the same period last year, and weather changes after the Spring Festival will become an important factor affecting the marketing pace of corn in the Northeast production areas. Corn Chief Analyst Wu Tianlong Soybeans: This month's forecast for the supply and demand situation of soybeans in China remains consistent with last month. Domestically, the domestic soybean market is operating generally smoothly, state reserves procurement and auctions are progressing orderly, base-level surplus grain is continuously decreasing, and the supply of high-quality soybean sources is relatively tight. Internationally, the estimated soybean yield in Brazil has been raised, the bumper harvest pattern of South American soybeans has become clearer, and the global soybean supply remains ample. Soybean Chief Analyst Zhang Jing Cotton: This month's forecast for the supply and demand situation of cotton in China remains consistent with last month. New cotton processing across the country is nearing completion, textile enterprises are actively preparing before the Spring Festival, and cotton lint sales are smooth. According to data from the China Cotton Association, as of February 5, the national cotton processing rate is 98.6%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, and an increase of 0.6 percentage points compared to the average of the past four years; the sales rate is 65.7%, an increase of 22.5 percentage points year-on-year, and an increase of 27.1 percentage points compared to the average of the past four years. Cotton Chief Analyst Leng Bofeng Edible Vegetable Oil: This month's forecast for the supply and demand of edible vegetable oil in China remains consistent with last month. After the middle to late period of January, cold waves brought widespread low temperatures, rain, snow, and freezing weather, causing minor frost damage to rapeseed in Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, and other areas, but the overall impact is limited. As of the end of January, most of the Sichuan Basin, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and oilseed production areas in Guizhou are in the budding to bolting stage, and some areas in Yunnan have entered the flowering stage. This month, no adjustments will be made to the production of rapeseed and rapeseed oil. Edible Vegetable Oil Chief Analyst Li Songlin Sugar: This month's forecast for the supply and demand situation of sugar in China remains consistent with last month. On the production side, 14 beet sugar mills have already ended production, and sugarcane sugar mills are in the peak production period. On the sales side, as of January 31, Guangxi, Yunnan, and Guangdong have cumulatively sold 155.1 million tons, 53.2 million tons, and 20.6 million tons of sugar, respectively, a decrease of 34.9%, 17.7%, and 28.9% year-on-year. Internationally, the global market continues to maintain a loose supply and demand pattern, and attention should be paid to the progress of sugar production in Thailand and weather conditions in Brazil. Sugar Chief Analyst Huang Yi