Against the backdrop of forecasts of record global production and the influx of the Southern Hemisphere crop to the market, world wheat prices may soon begin to decline.
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Analysts surveyed by Reuters expect that in 2025/26 Australia will harvest around 35.7 million tons of wheat, which is 1.6 million tons more than the previous season, although in September the USDA experts estimated the harvest at 34.5 million tons. This will increase pressure on wheat prices in the second half of the 2025/26 season. In October, the country began harvesting grains, and thanks to the high yield of western regions of Australia, which offsets drought losses in some parts of the south, production forecasts have been raised. The Grain Industry Association of Western Australia (GIWA) – a key wheat production region – reported in its October report that the yield here may approach the record level of 2022/23 MG (31.1 t/ha), and possibly exceed it. At the same time, the expected increase in supply is already beginning to lower export prices for wheat in Australian ports, which simultaneously increases the competitiveness of local suppliers in Asian markets. The price of ...